How to shape government policies on high-technology development using the indicative evaluation of risks?

Administratie si Management Public. 2022. No. 38. P. 70–89.

Барабашев А. Г., Макаров И. А., Zarochintcev S.

The international country-level indices of high-technology development were examined, and the indices that meet the criteria of sufficiently wide coverage of states and presence of measurement history over several years were selected. The stable group of basic (non-duplicating) indices characterizing high-technology development level and risks for national states was identified using the principal component analysis method. The rankings of states based on the basic indices of high-technology development built for the years 2014 and 2016 were studied. A proposal has been put forward to consider stepwise risk corridors of high-technology development as conventions that establish acceptable risk boundaries. An «acceptable corridor of high-technology risks» with boundaries of 10%-90% (decile of 10%) has been built. There have been identified two groups of states outside this corridor for which the risks of high-technology development turn into threats: «leading states» above the corridor, which are characterized by the excessively rapid development of high technologies associated with high risks due to excessive user confidence in the reliability of such technologies and the gaps in the development of security measures and regulation in this area; and «outsider states» below the corridor, characterized by the excessively slow development of high technologies, which leads to vulnerability to threats of high-technology development and to the appearance of a chronic lag in these areas. The location of Romania in this corridor was considered an example of assessing the state risks of high-technology development using the constructed risk corridor. For Romania, the value of the basic high technology indices is located near the center of the risk corridor. Thus, the high-technology development in Romania from 2014-to 2016 took place at an average pace, but also without significant risks. This position leaves Romania a significant space for the relatively safe acceleration of high-technology development

Ключевые слова: индикативные оценки, indicative evaluation, corridors of risks, High-technology indices, method of the main components, security risks and threats management

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