Is the new model of economic growth feasible for Russia?
Given the quality of the existing institutions and the significant role of the government sector in the economy, the Russian Federation has depleted the potential of the current model of growth based on commodity exports. The dramatic deceleration of the GDP growth rate down to less than 2% in 2013 bears evidence for this proposition. The Russian government is confronting the choice between an expansionist scenario and a conservative one, both built on the assumption that the existing ineffective institutions need not to be changed. On the contrary, according to our estimates, it is impossible to work out a new model of growth without taking into account the role of private initiative, healthy market-orientated institutions and investment in human capital. The premises for their contributions to development can be found in nowadays Russia. We focus on two groups of economic agents whose influence is increasing and can potentially become the driving force of a new model of Russian economic growth. These are “new business” and “ new bureaucracy”. "New business" is made by dynamic companies that are market-orientated but whose incentive to invest within existing institutional framework is limited. "New bureaucracy" consists of both progressive regional elites, who are interested in the development of their provinces, and efficiency-motivated professionals at the federal level.