Банковские кризисы в США: уязвимые бизнес-модели

Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2024. Т. 28. № 3. С. 525–554.

Podrugina A., Лысенко К. В., Майхрович М. Я.

The decade of expansionary monetary policy and tough financial regulation after the global financial crisis reduced the profitability of the banking sector, but at the same time it significantly increased its financial stability. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a stress for banks, but liquidity support measures and extra-dovish monetary policy of central banks in developed countries have severely limited the negative effects on the banking sector. The tightening of the Fed's monetary policy as part of the fight with inflation became one of the key factors of the banking crisis of 2023. During this crisis three large banks with a record amount of assets of $ 550 billion went bankrupt. The mechanism of the crisis of 2023 was similar to the crisis of savings and loan associations in the United States in the 1980s and had a classic pattern of development under increasing interest rates. The scale of the banking crisis turned out to be limited due to financial regulation measures introduced in 2009–2019, as well as due to the prompt response of regulators – liquidity support programs and full coverage of deposits of bankrupt banks. Some banks are more susceptible to bank runs in such conditions. The business models of the collapsed banks had common features – large corporate clients, a high share of securities in assets. In this research we conduct a cluster analysis of banks. It allows us to identify five business models inherent in American commercial banks. The features of the identified business models, changes in the dynamics of indicators, and exposure to risks during the crises of 2007– 2008 and 2023 are analyzed. The business model that is most exposed to today's risks of increased interest rates is also highlighted – a classic model with an emphasis on loans and a high proportion of uninsured deposits; all bankrupt banks belong to this cluster.

Keywords: банки, финансовое регулирование, banking, bank run, банковская паника, банковский кризис, financial regulation, banking crisis, banking business models, банковские бизнес-модели