• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Articles
  • Will Global Aging Change the Rate of Technological Progress and Form a New Consumption Model?
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2028
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
October 6, 2026
International N5 Symposium ‘Neural Networks and Nonlinearity in Nizhny Novgorod Brings Together Scientists from Russia and Serbia
The International N5 Symposium ‘Neural Networks and Nonlinearity in Nizhny Novgorod’ was held at the Nizhny Novgorod House of Scientists from September 23 to 26. The event was organised by HSE University–Nizhny Novgorod and the Nizhny Novgorod House of Scientists, with the participation of Sberbank and the Institute of Physics Belgrade. The symposium was held for the second time: the first conference took place in 2025 and attracted considerable interest from the academic community.
October 5, 2026
‘The Climate Transition Is Not Necessarily a Limitation for Business
Linara Khadimullina works in the field of low-carbon development. In an interview with the Young Scientists of HSE project, she spoke about why nature is not just a beautiful backdrop, her research on the role of sustainable corporate governance in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and growing plants as a source of inspiration.
October 5, 2026
Africa, Youth, and Civic Dialogue: Public Diplomacy Discussed at HSE University
In late September, HSE University hosted a roundtable discussion titled Civil Society in African Countries and Youth Participation in Public Diplomacy. Representatives of non-governmental organisations from Ghana, Ethiopia, and Russia, along with students from HSE University’s Bachelor’s Programme in Public Administration, discussed how young people without official diplomatic status can influence relations between countries and how the nonprofit sector can remain sustainable amid declining grant funding.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Will Global Aging Change the Rate of Technological Progress and Form a New Consumption Model?

World Futures. 2024. Vol. 80. No. 3. P. 199–222.
Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

The article discusses how the pace of technological progress and economic model of society will change under the influence of global aging process. It tries to answer the following questions: What could be the driver of an acceleration of technological growth in the forthcoming decades? Is slowdown of technological growth likely to be observed afterwards? What could cause such a slow-down? How could this slowdown affect socioeconomic and sociopolitical relations? What is the relationship between global aging and technological progress? Why is global aging likely to be one of the most important factors affecting technological growth in the near future?

Research target: Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Language: English
Full text
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: forecastingconsumerismtechnological growth global aging
Similar publications
Why China Frightens: Beyond the Realm of Western Political Forms
Kaspe S. I., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 138–167
This article examines the stereotypes about China that prevail in the West and Russia and make them perceive it not only as a strategic challenge, but an existential threat. The article demonstrates that the most common fears are overstated and counterfactual, and that they are grounded in the West itself. Modern China cannot be identified ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Усиление противостояния США и КНР и его последствия для мирового развития
Мусиева Д. М., Akaev A., Век глобализации 2025 Т. 56 № 4 С. 3–15
В работе дана кратчайшая история взаимоотношений Китая и США, которые за 40 лет прошли путь от экономического сотрудничества до глобального противостояния. Проведен анализ современного экономико-техно-логического и социально-политического состояния данных стран, показавший, что Китай как восходящая держава и США, находящиеся на нисходящей траектории, сегодня являются примерно равновеликими по совокупной мощи. Делается вывод о том, что нынешнее ...
Added: October 2, 2026
The Global Energy Order – 2040: Contours of an Emerging System
Yenikeyeff S., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 10–41
This article maps the contours of the global energy order that may emerge by 2040. It argues that global energy flows are being transformed from a price-driven commodity trade into instruments of strategic power by four simultaneous processes: an uneven low-carbon transition, the securitization of energy flows, the fragmentation of the international monetary system, and ...
Added: October 2, 2026
От Суэцкого кризиса до Ормузского противостояния: борьба за транспортные артерии продолжается
Baklanov A., Международная жизнь 2026 № 9 С. 4–15
This article, using materials from the Russian Foreign Ministry archive, analyzes the origins, dynamics, and outcomes of the 1956 Suez Crisis. It emphasizes the crucial importance of the Soviet Union's harsh demarche against Great Britain and France, which forced London and Paris to cease their aggression against Egypt. It examines the approaches of various states ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Скептики или циники: Два лица критики новостей
Kazun A. D., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 № 3 С. 80–98
The article analyzes media skepticism and media cynicism as two forms of critical attitudes toward news. The empirical basis of the study is a nationwide population survey (N = 6,007) conducted in late 2023 and early 2024. The analysis shows that both media skepticism and media cynicism are pronounced in Russian society: while a substantial ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Роль медийных мультимодальных текстов в политической коммуникации
Balakina Y. V., Коммуникации. Медиа. Дизайн 2026 Т. 11 № 3 С. 24–44
This article explores the role of multimodal media texts (MMT) in political communication. MMT are seen as a blend of cultural and symbolic forms, manifested through various semiotic modes such as text, image, sound, and their combinations in the media space. The goal is to elucidate how these texts construct social reality and their functions ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Demographic-Technological Positive Feedback, Hyperbolic Acceleration of the Global Complexity Growth, and the 21st Century Singularity
Korotayev A., Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2026 Vol. 17 No. 2 P. 1–38
This paper examines the striking mathematical correspondence between two independently derived hyperbolic equations describing global evolutionary dynamics: Panov's time series of "biospheric revolutions" spanning 4 billion years of biological and cultural evolution, and von Foerster's famous "Doomsday" equation for world population growth (1960). Both phenomena are governed by equations of the form y = C/(2027 ...
Added: September 29, 2026
Global and Regional Aspects of Islamization: A Case Study on Women in the Public Space of the North Caucasus
Shishkina A., Issaev L., Journal of Globalization Studies 2026 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 145–156
This article is aimed at discussing the global and regional aspects of Islamic modernization. The study discusses the transformation of ideas about the role of women in the public space by the case study on the North Caucasus. The attitudes of traditional society, the influence of Soviet power, the role of Islamization, both early and ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Юридическая хроника
Diskin E., Закон 2026 № 1 С. 92–123
In the January Legal Chronicle our authors comment on several significant legal events that happened at the end of 2025: decisions of the Constitutional Court No. 31-P on the payment of dividends on preferred shares, No. 41-P on VAT, No. 46-P on the fate of seized property in bankruptcy cases; discussion in the EU Council ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Форсайт в государственном управлении научно-технологическим развитием: сравнение подходов Республики Корея и Японии
Gribkova D. E., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2026 № 3 С. 151–176
Global challenges, economic security risks, sociodemographic and environmental processes, and accelerating technological development are creating a fundamentally new context for Public Administration that demands knowledge-based decision-making. The growing interest in proactive and predictive governance has led to the active use of science and technology foresight. However, the governance of scientific and technological development still faces ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Латиноамериканский популизм: самый классный диктатор в мире и либертарианец с бензопилой
Dubravskiy P., Электоральная политика 2024 № 2 С. 2
The paper explores the phenomenon of populism in Latin America as represented by two prominent political figures: Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador, and Javier Milei, President of Argentina. Both leaders embody different approaches to populism, using charismatic leadership and radical rhetoric to mobilize the population and challenge political elites. The paper analyzes the methods ...
Added: September 27, 2026
Победа Дональда Трампа: электоральный анализ кампании 2024
Dubravskiy P., Электоральная политика 2025 № 1 С. 1
The paper examines the key factors behind Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Special attention is given to sociopolitical shifts in American society, the effectiveness of the Republican campaign, the use of digital political technologies, and strategic outreach to key voter groups in swing states. The research data for the study includes ...
Added: September 27, 2026
China’s Soft Power: From Wary Analysis to Implementation in African Policy
Soloshcheva M., Российское китаеведение 2026 Vol. 14 No. 1 P. 6–23
This article examines the conceptualization of Chinese soft power and the implementation of the PRC’s soft power strategy in Africa. First introduced into academic discourse by American political scientist Joseph Nye in 1990, the concept was subsequently adopted and critically re-evaluated by Chinese political theorists, most notably Wang Huning, Yan Xuetong, Yang Shengping and Zhang Guozuo. The term has ...
Added: September 27, 2026
Western Mainstream Media Discourse on Russia-Africa relations amid Russo-Western Confrontation
Micah Y.B. Zing, Alisa R. Shishkina, Международная аналитика 2026 Vol. 2 No. 17 P. 126–138
The article focuses on the Western mainstream media (WMM) discourse on Russia-Africa relations and how Russo-Western information confrontation affects the diplomatic dialogue between Russia and African states. Historically, the Soviet Union fostered a friendly relationship with the continent, characterised by solidarity and mutual respect. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the WMM discourse on Russian-African ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Разработка опросника неэтичной креативности и его связи с темными чертами личности и коррупционными намерениями
Maksimenko A., Дейнека О. С., Загладина А. Р., Гуманитарные, социально-экономические и общественные науки 2026 № 9
The aim of the study was to develop and psychometrically validate the Amoral Creativity Questionnaire and to assess its relationships with dark personality traits and corrupt intentions. The sample comprised 722 respondents (mean age 38.5 years, 56.1% female) residing in Russia. To assess convergent validity, measures of machiavellianism, subclinical psychopathy, covert narcissism, psychological superiority, social ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Digital Sovereigns and Vassals: The Battle for Digital Spaces as a New Foreign Policy Priority
Diskin E., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 No. 3 P. 142–167
This article examines whether digital sovereignty can be sustained through domestic policy alone. Drawing on securitization theory, geoeconomics, the concept of weaponized interdependence, and regime complex theory, the article analyzes four cases: the U.S., the EU, China, and Russia. These actors confront different limitations on their control over the digital environment: insufficient regulation in the ...
Added: September 24, 2026
Декомпозиция и прогноз социальных настроений россиян (нейросетевой подход)
Karacharovskiy V., Ларина У. С., Резмерица А. А., Социологические исследования 2026 № 7 С. 60–75
Based on the neural network approach, the decomposition of the index of social mood in Russia for the period 2004-2024 was carried out and their dynamics for this period was modeled. The following issues are discussed: (a) the nature of the social mood' shocks in Russia, based on their connection with the concepts of politics ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Экономическая интеграция России и Беларуси: перспективы роста и обмена инновациями
Kopnova E., Журавлева К. А., Коряков И. В. et al., Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. Экономика 2025 № 1 С. 36–46
he article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modeling methods to evaluate the forecast of ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Development the reinforcement learning model for sources identification of H2S industrial emissions
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing (ICIEAM).: IEEE, 2025. P. 987–991.
Industry 4.0 concept focuses on sustainability problem that requires to control air emissions, especially for harmful substances like H2S, and reduction their impact on nature by using environmental monitoring and sources identification systems. This task requires solving inverse problem of dispersion models, which should establish complex mathematical dependences between the sensor data, the location and ...
Added: November 4, 2025
Методы машинного обучения в макроэкономическом прогнозировании: предварительные итоги
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 10 С. 131–154
The paper summarizes machine-learning (ML) methods most relevant to macroeconomics and assesses their performance in forecasting and nowcasting key macro indicators. Despite rapid methodological progress and a surge of publications over the past 25 years, gains in forecast accuracy with traditional statistical (economic, financial, and survey) data remain modest. ML models often outperform naïve and ...
Added: October 12, 2025
System Architecture of the Automated AI-driven Predictive Assessment for Environmental Monitoring in Industrial Areas
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Russian Automation Conference (RusAutoCon).: IEEE, 2025. P. 1046–1050.
This paper presents system architecture of the automated AI-driven predictive assessment of the ecological state of the air in sanitary protection zones around industrial facilities. The developed solution implements automated pre-processing of data presented in the form of time series using machine learning methods and the construction of short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations for the ...
Added: October 6, 2025
Анализ факторов, влияющих на управление денежными потоками предприятия
Чан Ф. Т., Староверова О. В., Kosov M., Аудиторские ведомости 2025 № 2 С. 129–134
This article is devoted to the study of factors affecting enterprise cash flow management. Methods of analysis and synthesis of peer-reviewed scientific sources on this issue are applied. As a result of the research, two groups of factors have been identified and systematized: objective factors (state economic policy, customer influence) and subjective factors (competence of ...
Added: September 22, 2025
Роль исторических эпох и символов в моделировании динамики и шоков социальных настроений в России
Karacharovskiy V., Социологические исследования 2025 № 6 С. 3–14
The article evaluates the possibility of forecasting mass social attitudes based on the interest of the population for the eras in the development of the country. Historical eras and their symbols are considered as comparison standards, temporal analogues of reference groups that provide the mass consciousness with samples of “reserve” standards of living and standards ...
Added: August 12, 2025
К прогнозированию вероятности невооруженной революционной дестабилизации методами машинного обучения
Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2025 Т. 37 № 2 С. 108–141
The authors provide a broad overview of the main applications for machine learning methods in political sociology. They describe history of the transition from simple regression models to complex machine learning models. The reasons for and benefits of this transition are discussed. The authors identify the main uses of machine learning models in related disciplines and ...
Added: August 1, 2025
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit