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Modelling the industrial production of electric and gas utilities through the CIR^3 model
Mathematics and Financial Economics (Германия). 2024. P. 1–25.
Ceci C., Bufalo M., Orlando G.
This work aims to extend previous research on how a trifactorial stochastic model, which we call CIR^3 mode, can be turned into a forecasting tool for energy time series. In particular, in this work, we intend to predict changes in the industrial production of electric and gas utilities. The model accounts for several stylized facts such as the mean reversion of both the process and its volatility to a short-run mean, non-normality, autocorrelation, cluster volatility and fat tails. In addition to that, we provide two theoretical results which are of particular importance in modelling and simulations. The first is the proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to the SDEs system that describes the model. The second theoretical result is to convert, by the means of Lamperti transformations, the correlated system into an uncorrelated one. The forecasting performance is tested against an ARIMA-GARCH and a nonlinear regression model (NRM).
Селянин Ф. И., Moscow Mathematical Journal 2026 Vol. 26 No. 2 P. 167–187
Minkowski mixed volume of n subpolytopes D1,…,Dn of a polytope P⊂Rn clearly does not exceed the normalized volume n!Vol(P). Equality holds if and only if the subpolytopes are interlaced, i.e., each proper face F⊊P intersects at least dim(F)+1 of the polytopes Di. Efficiently computing mixed volumes for more general collections of subpolytopes is crucial for estimating the complexity of numerically solving polynomial systems.
Motivated by relaxing the bound dim(F)+1 to dim(F), we ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Morozkina A., Есаян М. А., Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право 2025 Т. 18 № 4 С. 169–190
In the context of budget constraints, the allocation of development finance is one of the important research questions. This article proposes a study of the allocation of sovereign financing in the Eurasian region in 2008-2022 using new data (the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) sovereign financing database). The analysis shows that the most ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Kazaryan M., Dunin-Barkowski P., Bychkov B. et al., International Mathematics Research Notices 2026 Vol. 14 Article rnag146
We prove a recent conjecture of the fourth named author with P. Norbury that states a system of universal polynomial relations among the kappa classes on the moduli spaces of algebraic curves. The proof involves localization and materialization analysis of the spin Gromov–Witten theory of the projective line and is dictated by Z 2 -equivariant ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Kazaryan M., Dunin-Barkowski P., Bychkov B. et al., Communications in Mathematical Physics 2026 Vol. 407 No. 69
We prove that for any initial data on a genus zero spectral curve the cor responding correlation differentials of topological recursion are KP integrable. As an application we prove KP integrability of partition functions associated via ELSV-type formulas to the r-th roots of the twisted powers of the log canonical bundles ...
Added: August 31, 2026
СПб.: Издательство СПбГЭУ, 2025.
Вашему вниманию предлагается 19-й ежегодный сборник научных статей по вопросам региональной экономики и территориального развития.
Несмотря на сложное положение в экономике, продолжает развиваться межрегиональное сотрудничество регионов СЗФО. Активно взаимодействуют Санкт-Петербург и Ленинградская область в части развития единого транспортно-логистического комплекса. Идет формирование единого рынка труда на основе баланса трудовых ресурсов города и области. Разрабатывается единая схема размещения ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Asemota M. O., DISCOVER ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2026 Vol. 6 Article 892
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping work and human resource management, yet existing reviews largely treat competencies as secondary outcomes of AI adoption and offer limited theory-driven integration of how competency management itself is transforming. This study addresses that gap by systematically examining how competency management has evolved in AI-enabled contexts, how dominant theories explain AI-driven ...
Added: August 31, 2026
DISCOVER ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2026 Vol. 6 Article 892
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping work and human resource management, yet existing reviews largely treat competencies as secondary outcomes of AI adoption and offer limited theory-driven integration of how competency management itself is transforming. This study addresses that gap by systematically examining how competency management has evolved in AI-enabled contexts, how dominant theories explain AI-driven ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Gromov V., Переслегин С. Б., Переслегина Е. Б. et al., СПб.: Полакс, 2026.
Механизм происходящих в мире изменений носит эволюционный, а не экологический характер. Иначе говоря, Человечество столкнулось с кризисом развития, который имеет три независимые составляющие: кризис индустриального общества (фазовый кризис), кризис научного мышления (эпистемный кризис) и кризис формата существования разума (социосистемный кризис). Доклад посвящён аспектам этого триединого кризиса и возможным путям его преодоления, не сводящимся к первичному ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Devyatov R. A., Mathematical notes 2026 Vol. 119 No. 3 P. 782–786
Let G/B be a flag variety over ℂ, where G is a simple algebraic group with a simply laced Dynkin diagram, and B is a Borel subgroup. We say that the product of classes of Schubert divisors in the Chow ring is multiplicity free if it is possible to multiply it by a Schubert class ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Bayer A., Kuznetsov A., Macrì E., Journal fuer die reine und angewandte Mathematik 2026 Vol. 2026 No. 836 P. 111–162
We give a self-contained and simplified proof of Mukai’s classification of prime Fano threefolds of index 1 and genus g ≥ 6 with at most factorial terminal singularities, and of its extension to higher dimension. ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Bayer A., Kuznetsov A., Macrì E., Compositio Mathematica 2026 Vol. 162 No. 1 P. 59–99
We give a proof of Mukai’s theorem on the existence of certain exceptional vector bundles on prime Fano threefolds. To our knowledge this is the first complete proof in the literature. The result is essential for Mukai’s biregular classification of prime Fano threefolds, and for the existence of semiorthogonal decompositions in their derived categories. Our ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Guseva L., Novikov A., Advances in Mathematics 2026 Vol. 503 Article 111211
We prove that the Kuznetsov–Polishchuk exceptional collections on rational homogeneous spaces of the symplectic groups Sp(2n,C) are full and consist of vector bundles. To achieve this, we construct several classes of complexes, which we call generalized staircase complexes, symplectic staircase complexes and secondary staircase complexes — each of which may be of independent interest. ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Polishchuk A., Rains E., Journal of the Institute of Mathematics of Jussieu 2026 Vol. 25 No. 1 P. 339–373
We prove that for every relatively prime pair of integers (d,r) with r>0, there exists an exceptional pair (O,V) on any del Pezzo surface of degree 4, such that V is a bundle of rank r and degree d. As an application, we prove that every Feigin-Odesskii Poisson bracket on a projective space can be ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Kazhdan D., Polishchuk A., Pure and Applied Mathematics Quarterly 2026 Vol. 22 No. 3 P. 1115–1166
We continue the study of automorphic functions associated with a curve C over the ring k[ε]/(ε²), where k is a finite field, begun in arXiv:2303.16259. Namely, we study an example of theta-lifting in this framework and show that it can be understood in terms of the orbit decomposition of the space of automorphic functions S(SL₂(F)\SL₂(A_C)) ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Petrov I., Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 2026
This paper studies a social-norm model in which agents choose effort in response to their own productivity and the efforts of their neighbours. We analyse how links between groups with different productivity levels affect equilibrium effort and derive the intergroup linking intensity that maximises aggregate effort. We work in a stylised two-group stochastic block setting ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Kuznetsov A. P., Sataev I. R., Stankevich N., Chaos 2026 Vol. 36 No. 8 Article 083131
A radio-physical system, namely, a two-mode van der Pol generator, is considered. It is shown that this system demonstrates two types of chaos: with one and two zero Lyapunov exponents. The regions of the second type of chaos are surrounded by bifurcation lines of invariant tori doubling. Quasi-periodic structures of various shapes are embedded within ...
Added: August 30, 2026
Svetlana Grigorieva, Narmin Isaeva, Aliya Azizova et al., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2026 Vol. 20 No. 1 P. 75–84
This paper identifies the determinants of green bonds on global markets, China and Russia and evaluates the hedging effect of these instruments. We contribute to the existing literature by (1) studying the emerging markets such as Russia and China, (2) providing comparative analysis of the impact of identical factors on green bond yields on global, ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Shirokov N. A., Rozenblum G., Israel Journal of Mathematics 2026 P. 1–30
We establish that a generalized H\¨older continuous function on an (m−2)-Ahlfors regular compact set in Rm can be approximated by solutions of an elliptic equation, with the rate of approximation determined by the continuity modulus of the function ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Промыслов П. В., Kabanov Y., Лёгенький Д. В., Extremes 2026 Vol. 29 P. 65–87
This note is an addendum to the work initiated by Eberlein, Kabanov, and Schmidt and developed further by Kabanov and Promyslov on the asymptotics of the ruin probabilities in the Sparre Andersen model with investments in a risky asset. Using more advanced methods of the implicit renewal theory, we provide complements to some results of ...
Added: August 21, 2026
Veretennikov A., Mathematics 2023 Vol. 11 No. 14 Article 3096
Polynomial recurrence bounds for a class of stochastic differential equations with a rotational symmetric gradient type drift and an additive Wiener process are established, as well as certain a priori moment inequalities for solutions. The key feature of this paper is that the approach does not use Lyapunov functions because it is not clear how ...
Added: July 16, 2026
Tsvetkova O., Ouarda T., Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2019 Vol. 11 No. 5 P. 053303–053303
The present paper bridges mathematical modeling and wind resource assessment (WRA). Sensitivity analysis (SA) links portions of output variance to the variance in each input variable. Global SA (GSA) explores inputs globally. One-at-a-time SA is dominating in WRA, while GSA is often overlooked. Compared to traditional methods, GSA offers potential improvement by the means of ...
Added: September 15, 2025
Lubashevsky I., Lubashevskiy V., Computer Research and Modeling 2024 Vol. 16 No. 1 P. 79–87
We present a novel model for the dynamical trap of the stimulus-response type that mimics human control over dynamic systems when the bounded capacity of human cognition is a crucial factor. Our focus lies on scenarios where the subject modulates a control variable in response to a certain stimulus. In this context, the bounded capacity ...
Added: February 25, 2024
Herbst K., Baalmann L., Bykov A. et al., Space Science Reviews 2022 Vol. 218 No. 4 Article 29
Thanks to dedicated long-term missions like Voyager and GOES over the past 50 years, much insight has been gained on the activity of our Sun, the solar wind, its interaction with the interstellar medium, and, thus, about the formation, the evolution, and the structure of the heliosphere. Additionally, with the help of multi-wavelength observations by ...
Added: October 27, 2022
Volkova O. N., Вологина Д. -., Korolev A. V., Математическая теория игр и ее приложения 2022 Т. 14 № 1 С. 21–48
Вводятся стохастические параметры в модели сетевых игр с производством и экстерналиями знаний, которая была сформулирована В. Матвеенко и А. Королевым и обобщает двухпериодную модель Ромера. Агенты различаются продуктивностью, имеющей детерминированную и винеровскую составляющие. Рассматривается динамика, которая возникает при объединении двух полных сетей. Получены явные выражения в форме броуновских случайных процессов. Проведен качественный анализ решения системы ...
Added: May 11, 2022