Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics: Modern Society and a Look into the Global Future. Cybernetic W-Society

P. 419–460.

Akaev A., Malkov S., Leonid Grinin, Bilyuga S., Davydova O., Anton Grinin, Kovaleva N., Malkov A., Jameelah Musieva, Korotayev A.

This chapter presents the results of the application of the set of basic models outlined in chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume) to model the current historical situation and to forecast its further development. Akaev et al. show that the modern historical period is a period of transition from the “epoch of growth,” which followed the industrial revolution of the early nineteenth century, to the “era of deceleration,” one of the strongest indicators of which is a rapid decrease in the growth rate of the Earth's population and its aging. They perform the analysis of the ongoing changes in all spheres of life. Akaev et al show the uniqueness of the ongoing changes and consider alternative options for further development.

Keywords: the Industrial revolution, “epoch of growth”, “era of deceleration”

In book

Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome

Springer, 2023.