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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
July 8, 2026
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HSE University and the Russia Renewable Energy Development Association (RREDA) have signed a partnership and information cooperation agreement to support Renewable Energy of the Planet—2026, a national competition with international participation for students and early-career researchers. Applications are open on the competition's website until September 20, 2026.

 

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Gaussian limit theorem for posterior distribution in the problem of conflicting expert opinions

Mathematical Communications. 2023. Vol. 28. No. 2. P. 203–212.
Kasianova K., Kelbert M.

. Suppose we have n experts who have their prior opinions about the unknown probability q in the experiment with a binary outcome. It is known that expert opinions are in conflict with each other. To model “conflicting” expert opinions a prior distribution based on Selberg’s integral is constructed. We prove a theorem regarding the limiting properties of the posterior distribution. Also, differential entropy and the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of such posterior are studied.

Research target: Mathematics
Language: English
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Keywords: Selberg integralKullback-Leibler divergenceweighted differential entropySelberg-Beta distribution
Publication based on the results of:
Probabilistic-statistical analysis and modeling of processes with memory, Gaussian chaos, information measures (2024)
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