Disruption tails and post-disruption instability mitigation in the supply chain

P. 343–348.

Ivanov D., Rozhkov M.

We study the coordination effects of production and ordering policies in the supply chain (SC) that experiences capacity disruptions and recovery. Discrete-event simulation methodology is used for analysis with real company data and real disruptions. It has been revealed that disruption-driven changes in SC behavior may result in post-disruption instability caused by backlog and delayed orders the accumulation of which in the post-disruption period we call as “disruption tails”. A transition of these residues into the post-disruption period destabilizes the normal operation mode resulting in further delivery delays and non-recovery of SC performance. The results provide evidence that coordinated contingency policies need to be applied during the disruption period to avoid the disruption tails.

Keywords: имитационное моделирование, восстановление, цепь поставок, устойчивость, сбой, supply chain, inventory, simulation, recovery, запас, resilience, Disruption, contingency policy, политика восстановления

In book

9th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management and Control MIM 2019

Vol. 52. Issue 13. , Elsevier, 2019.