Модели оценки и прогнозирования целевых показателей в кризисных ситуациях в составе цифровых двойников сложных объектов

Вопросы оборонной техники. Серия 16: Технические средства противодействия терроризму. 2022. № 9-10(171-172). С. 27–34.

Шалковский А. Г., Podchufarov A., Galkina A. N., Аустер И. А., Ванина С. С.

The development of the system engineering methodology based on modeling methods (MBSE) has become one of the significant foundations of the current stage of actively expanding the implementation areas of complex objects digital twins. To assess and manage the target indicators of digital twin objects, the methodological apparatus based on MCC-models is widely used. Effective interaction of the participants considered as part of the model is ensured using modern approaches of UX and UI design (user experience and user interface design). The required quality of digital twins’ calculation tools is ensured by introducing algorithms aimed, among other things, at solving the problems of incompleteness of external and internal information, the complex dependence of digital twin object’s competitiveness on factors, and the mutual influence of factors. The algorithms include methods of bifurcation analysis and soft modeling, methods of network analysis, as well as methods of multicriteria optimization. The combination of methods used makes it possible to consider digital twins as a promising tool for improving the efficiency of high-tech facilities at all stages of their life cycle and minimizing risks in crisis situations. The article considers examples of the use of digital twins for nuclear facilities in order to increase the efficiency of designing promising nuclear power plants, their construction, operation and anti-terrorist protection.

Keywords: моделирование, modeling, системный подход, Digital Twin, цифровой двойник, systems-based approach, MCC-model, UX design, nuclear facility, МКК-модель, UX-дизайн, объект использования атомной энергии