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Сравнение методов наукастинга макроэкономических индикаторов на примере российского ВВП
Прикладная эконометрика. 2020. Т. 59. С. 113–127.
The paper compares the nowcasting quality of a range of models of Russian GDP using high-frequency data. The models compared are MIDAS in different specifications, including models with regularization and dimensionality reduction using principal components and Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR with Minnesota prior. Indices corresponding with GDP by production components are used as explanatory variables. Nowcasts of MFBVAR models are shown to have higher accuracy then obtained by any type of MIDAS models on different test time periods. We also analyze dynamics of nowcasting errors of models and calculate monthly estimate of GDP growth rate that can be obtained with MFBVAR models
Denis Seliutskii, Russian Journal of Mathematical Physics 2025 Vol. 32 No. 2 P. 399–407
In this paper, we find an upper bound for the first Steklov eigenvalue for a surface of revolution with boundary consisting of two spheres of different radii. Moreover, we prove that, in some cases, this boundary is sharp. ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Кумар В., MSW Management 2026 Vol. 36 No. 1s P. 1746–1753
This study explores how profitability, export efficiency, and cost functionality correlated with the financial sustainability index (FSI) for Indian manufacturing companies and the development of the early warning system. The study was conducted on 50 Indian manufacturing companies those participate in the export business, whose data has been collected for the nine quarters from 2023 ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Tekic A., Nguen C. M., Business Horizons 2026 Article In Press, Journal Pre-proof
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms face intense pressure to internationalize, yet the traditional playbook—lengthy R&D cycles, costly market research, and standardized campaigns—often struggles to deliver local relevance at speed. This article argues that crowdsourcing—digitally mediated, large-scale consumer participation—can complement established internationalization tools by mobilizing local knowledge and community endorsement to mitigate key aspects of the ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Ulanov V. L., Springer, 2026.
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Semerikova E. V., Салов А. И., The Journal of the New Economic Association 2026 Vol. 1 No. 70 P. 221–237
In this paper, we assess the extent of agglomeration externalities that
mirror on labour productivity gains while accounting for the direct and indirect effects
of transportation exposure. To this end we combine data on the local average wage and
employment with comprehensive information on the public transportation and road networks
of the Saint Petersburg Metropolitan Area, one of the ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Жакупов О. Б., European Journal of Mathematics 2025 Vol. 11 Article 84
We provide examples of smooth three-dimensional Fano complete intersections of degree 2, 4, 6, and 8 that have absolute coregularity 0. Considering the main theorem of Avilov, Loginov, and Przyjalkowski (CNTP 18:506–577, 2024) on the remaining 101 families of smooth Fano threefolds, our result implies that each family of smooth Fano threefolds has an element of absolute ...
Added: May 18, 2026
Voytenkov V., Emerging Markets Review 2026 No. 101482 P. 1–37
This paper examines the effects of the 2008, 2014, and 2020 crises on household consumption patterns in Russian regions. The micro-level analysis is conducted using quarterly data from Rosstat's Household Budget Survey. Dependent variables are expenditure on food at home, out-of-home, alcohol, non-food items, services. Explanatory variables are household characteristics and dummy variables that capture ...
Added: May 18, 2026
Lodiagin B., Nazarova V., Rincon C. J., URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH 2026 Vol. 14 No. 1
This study applies an established social cost–benefit analysis (CBA), combined with sequential shock scenarios (COVID-19 and the post-2022 sanctions) and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis, to evaluate the welfare robustness and recovery dynamics of the Pulkovo Airport PPP renovation project (St. Petersburg, Russia). Using traffic, operations, and cargo forecasts through 2040, we compare a pre-shock baseline ...
Added: May 17, 2026
Brodetskiy G., Gerami V., Shidlovskii I. et al., Транспорт: наука, техника, управление 2026 № 3 С. 3–8
В статье предложен специальный метод модификации процедур многокритериальной оптимизации. Он позволяет расширить набор критериев выбора, чтобы учитывать предпочтения лица, принимающего решения (ЛПР) как раз в моделях транспортного обеспечения работы цепей поставок. Реализуется изменение наклона направляющей для линий уровня критерия выбора в пространстве значений частных критериев (с нацеливанием выбора на утопическую точку). Разработаны и представлены требуемые ...
Added: May 17, 2026
Федоров Н. С., Финансовый журнал 2025 Т. 17 № 6 С. 99–112
The DCF model is one of the most commonly used models in valuing companies for investment deci sions. Nevertheless, estimating the accuracy of this model remains an important research question. This article presents an assessment of the accuracy of DCF model specifications based on analyzing the variance of fair share prices of companies listed on ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Федоров Н. С., Финансы и бизнес 2025 Т. 21 № 3 С. 34–50
Currently, the role of artificial intelligence is increasingly playing a significant role in various fields, including the increasing role of machine learning in finance. On the other hand, company valuation remains an important part of research due to its difficulty in correctly predicting the accuracy of target stock prices. This study provides an analysis of ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Lerman L. M., Turaev D. V., Regular and Chaotic Dynamics 2026 Vol. 31 No. 3 P. 349–369
We show that bifurcations of four-dimensional symplectic diffeomorphisms with a quadratic homoclinic tangency to a saddle periodic orbit with real multipliers produce 2-elliptic periodic orbits if the tangency is not partially hyperbolic. We show that a normal form for the rescaled first-return maps near such tangency is given by a four-dimensional symplectic H´enonlike map and study bifurcations of the ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Aleskerov F. T., Yakuba V. I., Khutorskaya O. et al., Springer, 2026.
The book contains new models of bibliometric analysis based on centrality measures in network analysis, pattern analysis and stability analysis. A distinctive feature of these centrality measures is that they account for the parameters of vertices and group influence of vertices to a vertex. This reveals specific groups of publications, authors, terms, journals and affiliations ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Kuptsov P., Panyushev A., Stankevich N., Chaos 2026 Vol. 36 No. 5 Article 053138
We develop a machine-learning approach to reproduce the behavior of two versions of the van der Pol oscillator exhibiting a subcritical Andronov–Hopf bifurcation, with or without a codimension-2 Bautin point. We construct a neural-network model that functions as a recur rent map and train it on short segments of oscillator trajectories. The results show that, ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Dorovskiy A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
In this paper the structural stability of generic families of vector fields of the PC-HC class on the two-dimensional sphere is proved. A classification of these families up to moderate equivalence in neighborhoods of their large bifurcation supports is presented, based on such invariants as the configuration and the characteristic set. The realization lemma is proved. ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., / Series Econometrics "arxiv". 2026.
This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...
Added: April 3, 2026
Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
Added: March 15, 2026
Akaev A., Давыдова О. И., Korotayev A., Философия и общество 2025 № 4(117) С. 5–46
This article presents a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of countries grouped into civilizational clusters based on a cultural-historical approach. The object of the study is the macroeconomic dynamics of states in the context of civilizational differences, and the subject is the model-based assessment and forecast of GDP growth rates for the period up to 2050. The ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
Added: February 11, 2026
Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
Added: February 10, 2026
Antsygina A., Teteryatnikova M., Tremewan J. C. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2025.
Many competitive environments allow for a third party to be indirectly involved by supporting one or both sides in the conflict. Such support can come from trade partners, colleagues, or allies, who can in turn benefit from a supported party's success. We use theory and an experiment to investigate how support relationships develop endogenously in ...
Added: January 31, 2026
Akhmedova A., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
The study explores a psychological phenomenon of inaction inertia-avoiding action after missing a more favourable opportunity. Unlike action inertia (e.g.,sunk costs effect), inaction inertia has been less studied, particularly in economic contexts. Considering the reference dependent nature of the phenomenon, I build on the work of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to examine how past experiences ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Ozhegova A., Зорина К. С., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 6108727". 2026.
Simplified tax regimes with explicit eligibility thresholds are a common tool which reduces tax burden but distorts firms’ behavior, creating local bunching just below the threshold. However, we show that when firms have access to business splitting their responses extend far beyond the local margin. Our model demonstrates that splitting reduces local bunching but amplifies ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Кумачева С. Ш., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5312100". 2025.
In recent years, an emerging body of empirical research has shown that tax audits, in addition to recovering unpaid taxes (direct effect), increase future tax compliance (indirect or dynamic effect). This literature also suggests that updating expectations induced by audit experience plays an important role in explaining this indirect effect. However, exactly how taxpayers form ...
Added: January 21, 2026