Система научно-технологического прогнозирования и стратегического планирования в лесном комплексе Российской Федерации

Труды Санкт-Петербургского научно-исследовательского института лесного хозяйства. 2020. № 1. С. 54–73.

Kuzminov I., Lobanova P., Loginova I., Bakhtin P. D.

This paper contains the analysis of problems that complicate the effective strategic development of the forest complex of the Russian Federation, including deviations in forest management of the Russian Federation from the best world practices. Based on the data from a comparative analysis of Russian and international strategic documents, it has been found that, unlike the international, the Russian strategic planning agenda in the industry is more short-term in nature and mainly focuses on targeted tools to overcome current, forest problems often of a private nature. This conclusion has been made on the basis of the analysis of the Strategy for the development of the Russian forest complex till 2020 and the Strategy for the development of the Russian forest complex till 2030. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the management situation in Based on a comprehensive analysis of the management situation in the industry, the authors conclude that one of the major problems of the forest complex as an object of strategic planning is the lack of a request for long-term sustainable development, the adaptive transformation adoption based on the current response, leading to a narrowed reproduction of production and technological potential. As a solution to this problem, the authors propose the introduction of a system of monitoring and forecasting the scientific and technological development of the industry in the state administration of forestry. At the same time, the authors are of the opinion that the use of big data analysis in the framework of monitoring and forecasting will improve the quality of strategic planning. The results presented in this paper are important for forecasting the parameters of the scientific and technological development of the forest complex at the global and national levels and can be used as a practical tool for substantiating comprehensive planning strategies in the forest complex in the long run.

Keywords: стратегическое планирование, sustainable forest management, лесной комплекс, science and technology forecasting, forest complex, strategic planning, устойчивое лесоуправление, научно-технологическое прогнозирование