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  • Власть и насилие в России через призму байесовского сценарного анализа.
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News
October 12, 2026
Road Injuries Leading Cause of Death Among Men Aged 10 to 39
Worldwide, road injuries are the leading cause of death among males aged 10–39. An international team of researchers reached this conclusion as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, analysing data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2023. Their findings have been published in The Lancet Public Health, with HSE University Professor Vasily Vlassov listed among the collaborators.
October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.
October 7, 2026
‘Our Team Consists of True Leaders in Their Respective Academic Disciplines
The HSE International Centre of Decision Choice and Analysis studies a wide range of methods for analysing decision-making and possible scenarios for the development of natural, socio-economic, and political phenomena using various mathematical models. The application of advanced mathematical methods to forecasting helps to prevent negative outcomes and avoid erroneous decisions. The HSE News Service spoke to the centre’s director, Prof. Fuad Aleskerov, about its work.

 

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Власть и насилие в России через призму байесовского сценарного анализа.

Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2016. № 4(83). С. 68–81.
Krechetova M. Y., Сатаров Г. А.

M.Krechetova and G.Satarov continue the line of reasoning laid out in their article "Power and Violence (Russian Case)" and attempt to reconcile their thoughts with the current political situation in Russia and the results of scenario forecasting analysis that they carried out in Spring 2016. The study shows that Russia is moving a way from the inertial scenario, which seemed most likely only six month ago, towards the scenarios of a "Besieged fortress" and "Explosion" that imply an increase in physical violence.

Language: Russian
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Keywords: властьРоссияRussiaсценарный анализэкспертные оценкинасилиеpowerexpert evaluationviolencescenario analysis
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