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Оценка влияния различных шоков на динамику макроэкономических показателей в России и разработка условных прогнозов на основе BVAR-модели российской экономики
In this paper, we investigate the influence of internal and external shocks on macroeconomic indicators of Russian economy using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. We develop conditional medium-term forecasts (scenarios, up to 2017) and then compare the forecasting outcomes achieved in BVAR under these scenarios with respective official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) of the Russian Federation. Our results indicate that within the similar scenario conditions our proposed BVAR predicts (1) a deeper and (2) more prolonged recession on the medium-term forecasting horizon as compared to the MED’s forecasts. Our Анна Пестова, Михаил Мамонов 91 comparative analysis allowed us to reveal the bottlenecks in the forecasting methodologies applied both in the MED’s model and in our BVAR model, which seriously worsen the quality of forecasts.