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Early Warning Signals for Landslides in Context of Self-organized Criticality
Numerous studies have provided compelling evidence that the probability distribution of avalanche sizes follows a power law, and that 1/f noise is present in the stochastic dynamics of landslides. We present a theoretical explanation of these phenomena within the framework of self-organized criticality theory, proposing a discrete-time model in the form of a sandpile cellular automaton on a fractal landscape. We also introduce temporal and spatial early warning signals associated with critical slowing down of the landscape as it self-organizes into a critical state exhibiting avalanche-like dynamics. The results of this study may be useful for those involved in landslide risk assessment and the development of landslide early warning systems.