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October 12, 2026
Road Injuries Leading Cause of Death Among Men Aged 10 to 39
Worldwide, road injuries are the leading cause of death among males aged 10–39. An international team of researchers reached this conclusion as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, analysing data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2023. Their findings have been published in The Lancet Public Health, with HSE University Professor Vasily Vlassov listed among the collaborators.
October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.
October 7, 2026
‘Our Team Consists of True Leaders in Their Respective Academic Disciplines
The HSE International Centre of Decision Choice and Analysis studies a wide range of methods for analysing decision-making and possible scenarios for the development of natural, socio-economic, and political phenomena using various mathematical models. The application of advanced mathematical methods to forecasting helps to prevent negative outcomes and avoid erroneous decisions. The HSE News Service spoke to the centre’s director, Prof. Fuad Aleskerov, about its work.

 

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On compensation incentives, managerial overconfidence, and payout policy

Finance Research Letters. 2025. Vol. 85, Part B. Article 107961.
Anilov A., Ivashkovskaya I.

This paper investigates how CEO overconfidence interacts with compensation structure to influence corporate payout policy. Using a panel of 713 S&P 1500 firms from 2010 to 2019, we find that overconfident CEOs with higher equity-based (i.e., convex) compensation are associated with significantly lower levels of both cash dividends and share repurchases. In contrast, inside debt compensation (non-convex) mitigates this effect, encouraging higher dividend payouts. The results uggest that these effects operate through financial slack and risk-taking channels. The uncovered relationships are present only in firms operating in non-innovative industries and with strong corporate governance. We interpret this as evidence that boards in innovative firms preserve managerial discretion, while weak governance limits the board’s ability to discipline overconfident CEOs. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of overconfidence and endogeneity controls. These results highlight the importance of tailoring CEO incentives to behavioral traits such as overconfidence, particularly in relation to payout decisions.

Research target: Economics and Management
Language: English
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Keywords: payout policyoverconfidenceinside debtEquity compensationRational incentives
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