Do unobserved components models forecast inflation in Russia?
Economics. EC. Высшая школа экономики , 2013. No. WP BRP 35/EC/2013.
I apply the model with unobserved components and stochastic volatility (UC-SV) to forecast the Russian consumer price index. I extend the model which was previously suggested as a model for inflation forecasting in the USA to take into account a possible difference in model parameters and seasonal factor. Comparison of the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the linear AR model and the UC-SV model by mean squared error of prediction shows better results for the latter model. Relatively small absolute value of the standard error of the forecasts calculated by the UC-SV model makes it a reasonable candidate for a real time forecasting method for the Russian CPI.
, Пространственная экономика 2017 № 4 С. 41-58
Spatial interactions among modelling economic variables observed in spatially distributed units (due to their economic and trade relations) may be considered as an additional explanatory variable in a regression model (which generally prevents from its misspecification). Usually, spatial interactions are included in a regression in the form of spatial lag. In this paper we conduct a spatial econometric analysis ...
Added: December 26, 2017
Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys during the Great Recession: Evidence for Russia
, , , Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys during the Great Recession: Evidence for Russia / KOF Swiss Economic Institute. Series KOF "KOF Working Papers". 2012. No. 306.
This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we conclude that the use ...
Added: April 12, 2013
, , , Journal of Simulation 2020 P. 1-14
We develop a stock-flow-consistent microsimulation model that comprises all relevant mechanisms of money creation and parametrize it to fit actual data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign reserve accumulation by the Bank of Russia. We use direct forecasts from the microsimulation model ...
Added: December 17, 2020
Global challenges and trends in agriculture: impacts on Russia and possible strategies for adaptation
, , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 218-250
Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment. Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the ...
Added: June 23, 2017
Россия в глобальном мире. Сборник научных трудов 10-й Всероссийской научно-теоретической конференции
СПб.: Издательство Политехнического университета, 2012
Сборник содержит материалы по проблематике: Россия в условиях глобального кризиса: внутренние и внешние угрозы; эволюция взглядов на роль государства в экономии; модель многополюсного мира; преемственность политической власти в России: история и современность; опыт управления развитием по пути национального проектирования; энергетическая безопасность Запада как вызов России; перспективы вступления России в ВТО: экспертные оценки и прогнозы; Россия ...
Added: February 14, 2013
, , М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2017
В аналитическом докладе представлены результаты форсайт-проекта «Исследование глобальных вызовов и долгосрочных тенденций инновационного развития в сфере возобновляемых источников энергии», проведенного ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ при информационной и финансовой поддержке Группы компаний «Ренова». Исследование было сфокусировано на трех тематических областях: преобразование энергии солнца в электрическую; преобразование энергии ветра в электрическую; преобразование энергетической биомассы в тепловую и электрическую энергию. ...
Added: April 4, 2017
, Fluke of stochastic volatility versus GARCH inevitability or Which model creates better forecasts? / Высшая школа экономики. Series FE "Financial Economics". 2014. No. 37.
The paper proposes the thorough investigation of in-sample and out-of-sample performance of four GARCH and two stochastic volatility models, estimated on the Russian financial data. The data includes prices of Aeroflot and Gazprom stocks and Ruble against US dollar exchange rates. In our analysis we use probability integral transform for in-sample comparison and Mincer-Zarnowitz regression ...
Added: October 2, 2014
, Monetary regime choice and optimal rationing of credit at official rate: the case of Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 103/EC/2015.
Stabilizing monetary policy in small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In a crisis this constraint may not allow Central Bank to cut interest rate because it may cause huge capital flight and subsequent problems. In this paper we investigate whether performed by Central Bank rationing of credit at official rate may ...
Added: October 22, 2015
Copula-Application To Modelling Russian Banking System Capital Adequacy According to Basel II IRB-Approach
, , Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2012 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 267-280
According to the strategy of the banking system development until 2015, the Central Bank of Russia is going to implement Basel II Internal-Ratings-Based (IRB) approaches in 2015, while Basel III is planned to be introduced in full starting from 2019. Taking into account the effects of the Basel II regulation during the crisis 2008-2009, in ...
Added: November 6, 2012
, , , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 528-540
Purpose – The purpose of the study is to show the technical potentials of a variety of renewable energy sources in Russia, as well as benefits from their deployment including hydrocarbon savings, emission reduction and lower energy cost. Design/methodology/approach – In the paper, Russia is compared with other countries in terms of actual installed capacity ...
Added: September 25, 2017
, , , Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2018 Т. 13 № 3 С. 97-112
The paper focuses on the development trends of the transport infrastructure of Eurasia in the context of the economic and political integration of the countries at this continent. Leading states of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) made proposals on large-scale infrastructure projects in the Eurasian space after financial crisis 2008–2009. Russia is extremely interested in integrating ...
Added: November 22, 2018
, , , Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
, Are Interregional Wage Differentials in Russia Compensative? / DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. Series 750 "Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin". 2007. No. 750.
Interregional differentials in nominal wages in the Russian Federation are huge compared to other countries. Using the NOBUS micro-data and a methodology based on the estimation of the wage equation augmented by aggregate regional characteristics, we show that these differentials have a compensative nature. Russian workers receive wage compensations for living in regions with a ...
Added: October 29, 2012
, Russia's Water Resources 2030: Policy Recommendations / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015. No. 44.
The Foresight study presented in this paper is devoted to the sustainable use of water resources in Russia. The authors analyse possible trajectories of development in the three thematic areas (i) sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and in industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The Foresight methods cover expert interviews ...
Added: August 31, 2015
, The Interaction of Grassroots Communities and Local Authorities in Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2015. No. 97.
Taking into consideration the underdevelopment of the Russian civil community it is of essential interest to touch upon local communities (known as TOS). Local governments and TOS communities could provide similar services and as such cooperate or compete with each other. Community initiatives could supplant poorly performing government services, or governments could outsource to communities ...
Added: July 28, 2015
, , , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 3 P. 291-305
Purpose – This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system. Design/methodology/approach – To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of ...
Added: June 22, 2017
Ownership Dynamics and Firm Performance in an Emerging Economy: A Meta-Analysis of the Russian Literature
, , , Ownership Dynamics and Firm Performance in an Emerging Economy: A Meta-Analysis of the Russian Literature / . 2017. No. 65.
This paper provides a meta-analysis of studies on the effect of ownership on the performance of Russian firms over 20 years of rapid institutional and economic changes. We review 29 studies extracted from the EconLit and Web of Science databases with a total of 877 relevant estimates. We find that the government negatively affects company ...
Added: January 12, 2017
, , Post-Soviet Affairs 2018 Vol. 34 No. 6 P. 412-429
This study seeks to discuss the survivability of charitable NGOs in Russia without foreign funding. We use cross-section data from a quantitative household survey conducted in April 2016 to investigate common giving patterns of Russians. Using statistic and regression analysis, we explore causes of donations and individual and social attributes of charitable giving in general ...
Added: October 5, 2018
Understanding the survival of post-Communist corruption in contemporary Russia: The influence of historical legacies
, , Post-Soviet Affairs 2015 Vol. 31 No. 4 P. 304-338
Corruption is widespread throughout the former Communist states, and it is particularly severe and entrenched in Russia. Despite the fact that Russia's contemporary corruption has recently become a subject of analysis, there is, however, no study that has addressed the role of the Communist legacy in the development of various aspects of corruption. This paper ...
Added: September 3, 2015
, , , Russian Management Journal 2020 Vol. 18 No. 2 P. 217-234
Wage adjustments for employees are a reactive mechanism to changing market conditions and form a significant part of pay policy. Though various attempts to explore wage levels and wage differentials have been made, wage adjustment policies remain an understudied topic. This paper analyses the determinants of wage adjustments based on data from Russian companies 2015–2017. ...
Added: July 28, 2020
Exports-performance relationship in Russian manufacturing companies: Does foreign ownership play an enhancing role?
, , Baltic Journal of Management 2018 Vol. 13 No. 1 P. 20-40
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between export activity and firm performance for a positive impact of foreign direct investments. We also analyse two possible causes of the effect: technology transfer and financial support. The theoretical background is rooted in the resource-based approach taking into account multinational companies’ perspective ...
Added: October 15, 2016
, Russian Journal of Economics 2016 Vol. 2 No. 3 P. 302-326
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors. The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) ...
Added: October 27, 2016
, , , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 511-527
Purpose This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on ...
Added: October 3, 2017
, Strategic Analysis 2016 Vol. 40 No. 6 P. 536-546
While environmental issues attract growing interest all over the world Russia has kept aside from this trend for a long time. Its participation in international environmental cooperation has always been determined primarily by the external policy’s objectives. In Soviet times, participation in global environmental initiatives was a channel of collaboration with the West. In the ...
Added: October 13, 2016