A Joint Non-Parametric Approach to the Decomposition of Bond Yields and CDS Spreads: Application of Eurozone Market Data
The paper presents a review of stochastic framework for term structure modeling and shows comparative advantages of commonly used techniques. The main application of the research is coherent modeling of credit and interest rate risk for Euro zone issuers.
The paper is an overview from scratch of the term structure modeling field. We present a brief review of the problem of modeling the term structure of interest rates. We start with informal problem formulation, and then, via different formalizations, we arrive at several different term structure models. We propose a new classification of term structure models based on the nature of a priori assumptions employed. We also illustrate the difference between snapshot and dynamic models, present arguments in favor of and against the approaches discussed and also point out some difficulties arising while using and combining such methods.
This paper reviews difficulties concerning a development of single-name CDS price (spread) dynamics model for the purpose of determination of margin requirements. It also discusses a possibility to construct such a model using information about respective equity prices and option implied volatilities. Finally, it presents the basic step towards the former idea demonstrating results for the CDS written on Gazprom senior debt.
In textbook the main issues connected with organization of credit analysis in a commercial bank were considered. The role of credit analysis in risk management system is shown. The methodology and specific methods for assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers used by banks are set out by complex approach. The textbook includes international recommendations for introduction of internal credit risk assessment systems in banks. With the aim at presenting the material examples from the practice of commercial banks, analytical tables, diagrams and figures were used.
This article investigates the behavior of the Russian government bond yields and its sensitivity to a selected range of macroeconomic, monetary, international and event factors. The analysis concerns both individual and joint, short-term and long-term influence of factors under study, with emphasis to the most informative determinants of yields. In whole the results of the empirical study using monthly data from 2003 to 2009 indicate a major significant role of changes in monetary factors, notably the minimum repo rate and the interbank interest rate, as well as of foreign exchange rate risk factor. Joint influence of theoretical fundamentals, namely inflation and its expectations, exchange rate and money supply growth, explain less than a third of bond yields movements. On the other hand, no importance of GDP and domestic debt growth as well as of external risk factors, such as oil prices, foreign interest rates and changes in international reserves is found. Also the results provide evidence for the fact that most government bond yields respond to certain political and economic events and reflect crisis changes of the market.
In this paper we investigate how asymmetric information and informed trading influences liquidity and how liquidity influences asset pricing on the Russian stock market in 1998-2011. We use a battery of existing liquidity proxies as well as our own modification of Lesmond et al. (1999) measure and capture informed trading through positive daily return autocorrelation. We find that asymmetric information worsens liquidity, whereas no supportive evidence of adverse impact of informed trading can be discovered, which could be partly due to a weak proxy. Furthermore, liquidity, along with market risk, seems to be the major driver of asset pricing on the Russian stock market. This result, however, is not robust to specifying liquidity as characteristic rather than factor.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.