Моделирование кривой доходности на российском рынке государственного долга: макроэкономический подход
The paper considers a potential improvement in the stability of the Russian government bond market by establishing a system of primary dealers. The existing world models of primary dealership are identified and their relations with national market peculiarities are determined based on the analysis of statistics and regulatory documents of 22 countries. The revealed regularities allow the authors to propose a private dealership model adapted to the specifics of the domestic economy.
Under fiscal stress the government often turns to practice of financial repression to lower the debt service cost. Captive pension fund is one of the targets for enlarging the demand for public debt. We propose an extension of the overlapping generations model with the fully-funded pension system and fiscal policy to question the optimality of financial repression in the form of non-market placement of the public debt. Despite its negative impact on the capital accumulation, financial repression is used to finance public goods and can be an element of optimal tax policy of the benevolent government.
When central bank abandons fixed exchange rate, it creates a threat of default, since government external debt increases. In this situation fiscal authorities make strategic decision whether to default and finance its government purchases only through tax revenues and seigniorage or to pay government debt. In order to explain government’s choice we build stylized model, where fiscal authorities compare social welfare from these strategies. The main difference of our model from the existing literature is that we consider government’s choice of optimal seigniorage. Seignioarage gives government an incentive to declare a default, since in case of default benevolent government can use seigniorage to finance government spending and increase utility of households. Analysis of the model shows, that even when foreign investors completely trust a government, at a certain level of total factor productivity and initial debt government can declare a default when central bank abandons fixed exchange rate. We show that incentives to default are higher in countries with low factor productivity and high level of initial debt. This result is illustrated by examples of currency crises in Mexico 1994-1995, Argentina 2001-2002 and Turkey 2000-2001.
A significant limitation of the model presented in the work is the modeling of the behavior of foreign investors who consider the probability of a government default equal to zero. Introducing endogenous expectations of foreign investors, which hold government bonds, can help to explain a twin crisis as a self-fulfilling prophecies crisis and explain factors, which influence choice of government in case of devaluation.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.