Globalization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Contagion
We proposed the nonlinear dynamic model of the formation of the market prices of precious metals based on the econophysic considerations. This model is a system of three ordinary differential equations relating the time dependence of elasticity, variations of bid and ask prices; it is similar to the Lorenz system. The areas of the dynamic stochasticity in experimental data were found with the comparing of the experimental and the theoretical ask and bid prices. These areas are the precursors of the crisis mode in the form of dynamic chaos.
In 1921 Austria became the first interwar European country to experience hyperinflation. The League of Nations, among other actors, stepped in to help reconstruct the economy, but a decade later Austria’s largest bank, Credit-Anstalt, collapsed. Historians have correlated these events with the banking and currency crisis that destabilized interwar Europe—a narrative that relies on the claim that Austria and the global monetary system were the victims of financial interlopers. In this corrective history, Nathan Marcus deemphasizes the destructive role of external players in Austria’s reconstruction and points to the greater impact of domestic malfeasance and predatory speculation on the nation’s financial and political decline.
Consulting sources ranging from diplomatic dossiers to bank statements and financial analyses, Marcus shows how the League of Nations’ efforts to curb Austrian hyperinflation in 1922 were politically constrained. The League left Austria in 1926 but foreign interests intervened in 1931 to contain the fallout from the Credit-Anstalt collapse. Not until later, when problems in the German and British economies became acute, did Austrians and speculators exploit the country’s currency and compromise its value. Although some statesmen and historians have pinned Austria’s—and the world’s—economic implosion on financial colonialism, Marcus’s research offers a more accurate appraisal of early multilateral financial supervision and intervention.
Illuminating new facets of the interwar political economy, Austrian Reconstruction and the Collapse of Global Finance reckons with the true consequences of international involvement in the Austrian economy during a key decade of renewal and crisis.
After two turbulent decades (1980s and 1990s) when emerging-market economies were frequent victims of financial crises, in the first two decades of the 21st century their macroeconomic performance improved. Nevertheless, there were three crisis episodes that hit some of these countries: (i) the spill-over effects of the global financial crisis in 2008–2009; (ii) the consequences of the decline in commodity prices in 2014–2016 for their exporters; (iii) the turbulence in Argentina and Turkey in 2018. Currency crises in Argentina and Turkey in 2018 underlined again the key role of prudent domestic policies. Early policy correction can help to prevent a crisis and avoid its economic, social and political costs. If crisis cannot be avoided, the comprehensive anti-crisis package, including up-front monetary and fiscal adjustment, should be adopted as quickly as possible to arrest market panic and reverse negative expectations.
The Group of Eight (G8) has had extensive and even existential experience with financial crises (Kirton 2007). The groups creation was driven by financial crises created by and in the US, in the form of the Nixon Administration’s unilateral destruction of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates on August 15, 1971 and the imminent bankruptcy of New York City at the time of the first summit at Rambouillet in November 1975. Then came a succession of real and potential crises, notably Britain’s need for support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the mid 1970s and Italy’s need in 1976, the developing countries debt crisis of the early 1980s, the American stock market plunge of October 1987, the attack on the European Monetary System (EMS), the Mexican peso crisis starting on December 20, 1994, the Asian-turned-global financial crisis of 1997–1999, the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, the Enron–dot.com bust and the America-turned-global financial crisis from 2008 to now. Since the G8’s 1975 start, such crises have been created by others to afflict a vulnerable America, and been created by America to attack the rest of the world. In both cases such crisis have been conscious, calculated controlled and targeted, as on August 15, 1971 and September 11, 2001, and unco.nscious, uncalculated, uncontrolled and untargeted events characterized by contagion, complexity and uncertainty that no one can fully comprehend, as in the global crisis from 2008 until now.
The hegemonic framing of the ‘Greek crisis’, launched by leading liberal and conservative politicians in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere and followed by mass media, reflected deep Western racial prejudices towards the periphery, and stressed typical bourgeois values affirming hard work, while publicly asserting regimes of entitlement to citizenship, welfare and consumption. The article presents a class-oriented analysis of the ‘Greek crisis’ discursive construction in North-Western European media, by studying articles published between 2010 and 2015 in four newspapers from Germany and Denmark. The analysis shows that, along with cultural ones, upper/ middle-class biases are publicly expressed through articulations of ridicule, contempt and resentment, three interrelated ‘affective modalities’ connected to essentialist binary constructions of the (Western/ European) self and the (non-Western/European) Other. Thus, the bourgeois ideology is crucial in reproducing depoliticized frames of economic crisis, to pursue neoliberal crisis-reforms (such as various regimes of austerity and labour deregulation). The production and affirmation of middle-class subjectivities, is crucial for the organic advance of neoliberal reforms in society, while denying the advancing of working – class identifications and solidarities in the highly uncertain times of today.
In this paper, we consider how the intensity and channels of the relation between social networks and bank loyalty vary according to the state of the economy. We analyze bank exit over the period 2005– 2012 for over 300,000 retail clients of a commercial bank that experienced a bank run in 2008 due to a shock in solvency risk. The unique and rich data we constructed in close collaboration with the bank enables us to distinguish different sorts of family networks from neighborhood networks, while controlling for a wide range of client-level and branch-level characteristics and events. Using a proportional hazards model, we show the importance of family networks. In times of financial distress, family networks become even more important and retail clients take weaker, less direct social relationships into account
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.