AN OVERCONFIDENT CEO VS A RATIONAL BOARD: THE TALE ABOUT BANK RISKTAKING
The question about possibilities to use Twitter users’ moods to increase accuracy of stock price movement prediction draws attention of many researchers. In this paper we examine the possibility of analyzing Twitter users’ mood to improve accuracy of predictions for Gold and Silver stock market prices. We used a lexicon-based approach to categorize the mood of users expressed in Twitter posts and to analyze 755 million tweets downloaded from February 13, 2013 to September 29, 2013. As forecasting technique, we select Support Vector Machines (SVM), which have shown the best performance. Results of SVM application to prediction the stock market prices for Gold and Silver are discussed.
Game-theoretic model of election to a corporate board of directors is proposed. It is shown that the equilibrium distribution of seats is unique. The uniqueness guarantees nonmanipulability of elections. The distribution is obtained by the d’Hondt method of seats distribution in proportional representation problem. The model is tested on real data from a Russian company.
Overvaluation on financial markets, high price volatility and quite rapid reduction of emerging markets towards an investment behavior field in terms of predictive estimation and forecast of further market changes. Hereby decision-making basis is a personal investment understanding and, due to favorable business climate, could build up the growth of irrational exuberance and speculative bubbles on financial markets.
This study models Market Certainty Index as a measure of asset overpricing and market overvaluation in terms of a speculative bubble concept. The results also provide insights of how to enhance the facility of overpriced assets studies at non-transparent economies or emerging markets.
When writing this tutorial, the contributions received by the authors with the assistance of the NTF - National Training Fund subproject "Creating a center of excellence for economics teachers ' Innovation Project Development of education and work , received diplomas Russian competitions intellectual projects " Ideas for Russia " ( 2004) and "Power" (2008 , the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation ) . The manual is intended for students and undergraduates enrolled in the direction of "Economics" and "Management" , and may also be useful to managers and professionals , both financial and non-financial corporations.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.