Asymmetric Accuracy Metrics in Food Retail Sales Forecasting: an Empirical Comparison
In the book deals with modern methods and models of socio-economic forecasting, the most frequently used in practice. Essential part of economic decisions aimed at obtaining results in the future, so to make the right management decisions need to be reliable socio-economic forecasting, which is impossible without knowledge of methods and models. In connection with this prerequisite training of highly economist and manager is to study their discipline "methods of social and economic forecasting." The second volume contains the basic textbook methods and models used today in the socio-economic forecasting. Consistently provides methods and models short, medium and long-term forecasting how simple models of trends and using factor models. In some groups are identified and methods of forecasting models of evolutionary processes of socio-economic dynamics. The textbook is designed for students of undergraduate academic, but may be useful to undergraduates, postgraduates and doctoral students, as well as practitioners dealing with the forecasting of socio-economic processes.
As other worldwide sourcing industries the retail sector is also prone to various forms of corruption. In particular large retail-chains doing business in developing countries are often faced with corrupt bureaucracy and struggle with dubious administrative processes. On the other hand the purchasing divisions of large retailers decide upon million dollar deals with their suppliers which may tempt manufacturers to pay bribes for winning the deal. While such forms of corruption may be found also for other businesses there are other practices which may be recognised as corruption which are typical in the retail sector. One of the most controversial discussions concerns the practice of so-called slotting fees which are charged to manufacturers as a contribution to the handling costs of the retailer. Since such fees are negotiated in secrecy and not broken down by categories of expenditure they are often seen as a bribery-like payment demanded for getting contracts or staying in business. In the following chapter we will analyze these practices from an economic perspective. We will provide some empirical findings on how such payments are assessed in practice and conclude with some ethical considerations concerning the practice and the effects of slotting fees.
The evaluations of the forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the period July 2010 - June 2013 are presented. The forecasting of surface air temperature at 5 days and precipitation at 3 days are considered. Our complex statistical scheme uses the results of the best foreign global schemes, regional scheme COSMO-RU7. The joint statistical accounting of different kind of the systematic errors in the complex forecasting allows to exceed the quality of every original forecasting schemes. The complex forecasting scheme is operative, and its results are published on the website of the Hydrometeorological center of Russia everyday at 9 : 15 a.m. Moscow time. The website also provides forecasts of extremal temperatures, temperature dew-point and wind velocity about the earth surface.
The present study generalizes the results of scientific research in the field of economic and mathematic simulation using elements of the theory of functions of complex variables (TFCV), which was conducted since 2004 under the author’s scientific supervision. Since the new results significantly extend the instrumental basis of scientific research in economics and possess their own theoretical base and logic, this section of economic and mathematic simulation was called “complex economics”. The study provides the fundamentals of this new scientific direction in economics and demonstrates how to use this theoretical base to build new economic and mathematic models that appear to be more adequate than models of real variables.
Most economists are absolutely unfamiliar or slightly familiar with the theory of functions complex variables. This is why, in this study, we would state briefly some provisions of this theory to get the reader acquainted with TFCV, and then formulate sequentially the principles of the theory of complex economy, its axiomatic core, basic conceptual positions of the theory, methods and models of the complex economics. Where necessary, theoretical provisions are verified by examples from the real economic practice.
The study is targeted at scientific workers, post-graduate students and doctors using economic and mathematic simulations in their activity.
To elevate forecasting precision of bankruptcy models the impact of macroeconomic factors on the company's operation has to be considered as well as financial indicators transformed and multidimensional logit analysis made. Besides, differences in the stages of bankruptcy process play an important role.
During COVID-19 outbreak more interest in forecasting models has appeared. However, one of the popular sources of selecting the best models relies on specific leaderboards. The leaderboard maintainers utilize their own test configurations but it is unhelpful when they are trying to fit a model to not listed configuration or a model cannot be shown to anyone (if the leaderboard evaluates the model). In this case, a downloadable evaluation framework with various configuration parameters is needed. This work presents such a framework and the link to its repository.
A large number of research papers on relation between currency risk and firms’ value have been published during last several decades. Researches acknowledged that currency risk could be a pricing factor. We follow models’ developments under the framework of asset pricing theory and come to a conclusion that dynamic and asymmetric international asset pricing models were considered among the best for capturing exposure to exchange rate risk in developed and emerging markets. Exchange rate exposure became a separate topic of research. Different determinants of exposure were discovered in the literature. Economists estimated their influence on sensitivity of stock returns to currency volatility. There is certain specific in currency exposure research. In this paper we considered different methodological aspects of exchange rate exposure modelling and mentioned details of empirical analysis in emerging markets.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.