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Does Low Inflation Pose a Risk to Economic Growth and Central Banks Reputation?
CASE - Center for Social Economic Research
,
2020.
No. 501.
Dabrowski M.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Dabrowski M., / EUROFRAME - European Forecasting Research Association for the Macro-Economy. Series EUROFRAME "EUROFRAME Conference website". 2018.
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that ...
Added: June 14, 2018
Dabrowski M., / CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research. Series ISBN: 978-83-7178-718-8 "CASE Reports". 2021. No. 504.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic ...
Added: May 20, 2021
Dabrowski M., Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium (De Gruyter) 2021 Vol. 11 P. 1-47
Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global
financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy ...
Added: May 20, 2021
Sokolova A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP12 "Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа". 2013. No. 3.
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of infl ation expectations in Russia. The signifi cance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both infl ation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinfl ation measures introduced ...
Added: January 23, 2014
Sokolova A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2013. No. 39.
In times of fiscal stress, governments fail to adjust fiscal policy in line with the requirements for debt sustainability. Under these circumstances, monetary policy impacts the probability of sovereign default alongside inflation dynamics. Uribe (2006) studies the relationship between inflation and sovereign defaults with a model in which the central bank controls a risky interest ...
Added: January 22, 2014
Dabrowski M., / Vaildai Club. Series Valdai Club Expert Opinions "Valdai Club Expert Opinions". 2021.
The most recent inflation data from the US and several other countries signal that consumer prices started to rise. The question remains open whether this is a temporary post-pandemic rebound or the beginning of a more persistent inflationary trend ...
Added: June 11, 2021
Mukhametov O., Asian Economic and Financial Review (AEFR) 2021 Vol. 11 No. 5 P. 396-405
The principal objective of this paper is to scrutinize the relationship between central bank independence and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The relevance of this goal is based on the results of recent studies, which indicate that the inflow of direct investment into the economy depends not only on its indicators of economic development, but ...
Added: September 13, 2021
Dabrowski M., Warsz. : Center for Social and Economic Research, 2018
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007‒2009 and the anti--crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that ...
Added: June 25, 2018
Elahovsky V., Российская экономика: прогнозы и тенденции 2019 № 1-12 С. 10-12
Based on monthly statistical data on indicators of the monetary sphere of Russia its condition is analyzed and short-term prospects of its change are estimated ...
Added: October 28, 2019
Savitskaya E. V., M. : Litterra, 2018
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Added: October 21, 2014
Бочкарев С. А., Право и государство: теория и практика 2010 № 10 С. 110-117
Research is carried out article criminally-legal mechanism property protection, its communication with the inflationary and deflationary processes which have become aggravated in the conditions of financial crisis. By the analysis of communication of the criminal law with economic processes it is established that it aggravates property stratification of a modern society. ...
Added: October 19, 2012
Sokolova A., Economic Modelling 2015 Vol. 48 P. 189-198
This paper studies the monetary policy trade-off between low inflation and low sovereign risk in the environment where fiscal authorities fail to fully ensure the sustainability of government debt. Building on the Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) and the Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk (FTSR), this paper differs in its baseline assumption about the ...
Added: October 8, 2014
Бочкарев С. А., Zhalinsky A. E., Имущественные отношения в Российской Федерации 2010 № 9 С. 10-19
In this paper a study of criminal law mechanism for the protection of property with aim of establishing its relationship with inflation and deflation processes, aggravated in the Russian economy in the current financial crisis. As a result, the author found that the application of the criminal law does not solve the problem of stratification ...
Added: October 25, 2012
Karev M. G., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2011 № 9 С. 72-97
В работе предлагается формальный метод выявления предпочтений российского регулятора как на качественном, так и на количественном уровне. Основная идея заключается в том, чтобы по наблюдаемому поведению инструмента денежной политики (номинального обменного курса) сделать заключение о лежащих в основе этого поведения предпочтениях ЦБ. Для количественного анализа используется имитационная модель российской экономики. Метод основывается на включении в ...
Added: December 26, 2012
Rozanova N. M., Кокорин В. С., Terra Economicus 2013 Т. 11 № 3 С. 20-33
An adequate interaction between government and economy is the key problem of modern countries. How can we improve the functioning of the government if this conflict of interests would be systematic and unavoidable by its nature? What would be better: to have more government – and more limitations for business; or less regulation (with more ...
Added: October 30, 2013
Абрамова М. А., Криворучко С. В., Свирина Е. М., Банковские услуги 2015 № 5 С. 2-9
Приведены мнения экспертов по некоторым дискуссионным вопросам современной государственной денежно-кредитной политики России. Акценты сделаны на анализе целей деятельности Банка России в области денежно-кредитной политики, современного инструментария денежно-кредитного регулирования, вопросов применения режима таргетирования инфляции в России. ...
Added: May 22, 2018
Каширин В. В., Тихонов Г. В., Grachev N. N., Экономика и управление в машиностроении 2015 № 1 С. 48-52
Авторами предлагаются основы методологии принципов организации оценки и критериев отбора лучших инновационных проектов на рынке инновационных продуктов.
С возникновением нового объекта экспертизы: инновационных проектов, программ, образовательных практик – появляется насущная необходимость рассмотреть исходные положения теории экспертирования.
В целях освоения и понимания задач инновационного менеджмента и способов их решения предлагаем рассмотреть общий подход к разработке той ...
Added: April 12, 2015
Dabrowski M., CESifo Forum 2016 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 3-11
Political and economic changes in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU) at the end of 1980s and early 1990s resulted in just two episodes of monetary disintegration. Firstly, the end of Soviet geopolitical control over CEE led to the demise of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA or Comecon) ...
Added: February 5, 2017
Sokolova A., International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 2014 Vol. 4 No. 1/2 P. 254 -268
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. ...
Added: April 25, 2014
Zamulin O. A., Sosunov K. A., / ЦЭФИР и РЭШ. Series WP101-1 "Научные труды ЦЭФИР и РЭШ". 2007. No. 101.
The paper studies monetary policy in an economy, in which the manufacturing sector is ousted completely by the presence of a large natural resource industry. Thus, the economy produces only non-tradable goods, which can complement or substitute imported goods, and the primary shock to the economy comes from the ”uctuations in the world price of ...
Added: April 22, 2013
Sokolov V., Review of International Economics 2012 Vol. 20 No. 4 P. 707-722
This paper examines how the 2005 shift in Russian exchange rate policy from US dollar (USD) single-currency to USD-EUR (euro) bi-currency targeting has impacted domestic interest rates. The finding show that this policy shift has disconnected Russian interest rates from US dollar-denominated interest rates, while instead linking them to a synthetic interest rate composed of ...
Added: November 16, 2012
Borzykh O., Могилат А. Н., Деньги и кредит 2017 № 9 С. 48-54
The article studies the role of monetary analysis in inflation targeting and Bank of Russia’s monetary policy. We place emphasis on the approaches to inflation monetary risks estimation (these risks are caused by enhanced growth of monetary aggregates). We found out that currently money growth is not a key factor of inflation in Russian economy. ...
Added: August 24, 2017
Напалков В. В., Novak A., Shulgin A. G., Деньги и кредит 2021 № 80(1) С. 3-45
This research analyses regional heterogeneity in the reaction of core inflation to shocks of a single monetary policy on the example of Russia. We use a global vector autoregression model to estimate impulse response functions of core inflation in Russian regions to monetary policy shocks. The average 5-year cumulative response of regional core inflation to ...
Added: March 31, 2021
Sapunkova N. A., Журнал институциональных исследований 2012 Т. 4 № 4 С. 83-101
The article examines the specific features of the unconventional monetary policy measures undertaken in the emerging market economies (EME) during the world financial and economic crises of 2007-2010. It deals with the institutional and macroeconomic peculiarities that determined the differences in the choice and in the usage of unconventional monetary instruments in the emerging market ...
Added: February 24, 2013