The Performance of Business and Consumer Sentiment for Early Estimates of GDP in Russia: Old Turning Points and New Challenges of the Corona Crisis
НИУ ВШЭ , 2020. No. WP BRP 1 10 STI /20 20.
This study proves the efficiency of the results of business and consumer surveys for the first early estimates of GDP growth in Russia. For the expert community, the use of this alternative information, which is not revised over time and covers major economic activities, is essential when up-to-date traditional statistical information is not available, is often revised, and published with a delay. The main hypothesis of the joint cyclical sensitivity of flash estimates of aggregate entrepreneurial behaviour and reference statistics on GDP growth is tested. For this purpose, the authors calculate the composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combines 18 indicators based on the results of surveys of approximately 24,000 entrepreneurs in all main economic activities and 5,100 consumers. The empirical patterns, cyclical movement, the correspondence of turning points in GDP growth and ESI dynamics, and GDP expected estimates are identified through the joint testing of the analysed series. The authors present the results of cross-correlations, Hodrick-Prescott statistical filtering, a long-term interrelation, and a two-dimensional vector autoregression model. Statistically significant test results and the pattern of the impulse response function allow us to evaluate the quarterly nowcasts of GDP growth with the maximum predictive period of four quarters. Three scenarios of expected impulses in the dynamics of aggregate economic sentiments, different in strength and duration of their impact on further economic growth, are formed; these impulses include new crisis shocks for the Russian economy, which have been growing since March 2020. The resulting options of assessments reflect the possible amplitude of the decline in GDP growth from mid-2020, after COVID-19 containment measures and the collapse of oil prices. According to the results, the first signs of a recovery in low economic growth rate
, , Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 6 С. 8-41
The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis ...
Added: December 20, 2020
, , Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review 2021 Vol. 9 No. 1 P. 7-29
Objective: The objective of the article is to prove the empirical and predictive value of the aggregate opinions of businesses and households for expanding cyclical macroeconomic data in Russia, especially during the coronavirus shocks. Research Design & Methods: We use qualitative information from surveys that cover about 24,000 organisations and 5100 households in all Russian regions. The total economic ...
Added: April 6, 2021
, , / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2021. No. WP BRP 118/STI/2021.
The article analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on the expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of business activity of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for the period 1998-2020. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate the predictive value of ...
Added: March 17, 2021
, , et al., / United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Series WP "Inclusive and Sustainable Development Working Paper Series". 2020. No. 7/2020.
This study determines the effectiveness of using assessments and expectations of economic agents in the analysis of macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cyclical interaction between economic growth and entrepreneurial behaviour. The authors used the composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combined the confidence indicators of all sectoral business and consumer surveys ...
Added: May 22, 2020
Short-term forecasting of economic growth in Russia amid uncertainty based on the opinions of entrepreneurs and consumers
, , , / UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION. Series WP 2022 "Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series ". 2022. No. WP 2.
This paper analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale business and consumer surveys for 1998–2021. The main purpose of our study is to investigate the predictive value of the opinions and expectations of economic agents, especially in the context of crises and uncertainty. A composite ...
Added: February 4, 2022
Экономическое развитие и циклические настроения российских предпринимателей после рецессии 2014-2016 годов
, , , Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 1 С. 53-70
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity ...
Added: February 26, 2020
Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time: An experience of the 2008-09 recession
, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2014 No. 1 P. 103-128
This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread ...
Added: July 18, 2014
, , Транспорт Российской Федерации 2013 Т. 49 № 6 С. 38-43
The paper considers main world trends which are affecting to logistics development. Some indicators for describing logistics sector and logistics market are given. Special focus is directed to an analysis of barriers as constrains for logistic development: size/scale of national economy, industrial structure of economy, particular features of spatial resource allocation. As a summary of ...
Added: January 31, 2014
, , Общественные науки и современность 2016 № 1 С. 63-79
The article is devoted to estimation of the impact of cultural diversity on economic growth in the Russian regions in the framework of the neoclassical theory of economic growth. The model developed by R.Barro and X.Sala-i-Martin, called β-convergence, was used as a theoretical basis for the study. The main finding is that cultural diversity has ...
Added: May 5, 2016
L. : Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2019
Modeling economic growth in contemporary Russia ...
Added: March 24, 2019
, Экономика региона 2018 Т. 14 № 4 С. 1168-1180
The article investigates the major determinants of total factor productivity of Russian regions, in particular, the role of spillovers and agglomeration effects. Agglomeration effects are found to be important in regions located in the European part of Russia and in regions with low shares of extraction in the gross regional product (GRP): employment density in such ...
Added: March 29, 2019
, Азия и Африка сегодня 2013 № 10 С. 44-48
This article deals with the issues of economic growth in South Africa during the post-apartheid period. Drivers of economic dynamics are analysed, including institutional and financial reforms which have been carried out by the ANC’s government. Domestic and external reasons for the slowdown of economic development at the turn of decades are also discussed in ...
Added: January 24, 2014
, Вопросы экономики 2013 № 7
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. ...
Added: June 6, 2013
, Общественные науки и современность 2011 № 5 С. 21-33
The author compares the processes of economic development in the countries of the West and the East. The ratio in GDP growth, levels of per capita GDP both in the past and in the present time are analyzed. The article forecasts further development of Russia in whatever way (inertia, authoritarian or deepening of reforms) will ...
Added: December 17, 2012
М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2010
Added: January 27, 2017
, , / Высшая школа экономики. Series PS "Political Science". 2014. No. WP BRP 16/PS/2014.
The main focus of this paper is the impact of efficiency losses, related to public capital stock, on the prospects of economic growth in democratic and autocratic political environments. We introduce a distinction between two types of efficiency loss: along with the loss of public capital during its accumulation, we take into account the process ...
Added: October 24, 2014
Assessment of gross urban product in Russian cities and its contribution to Russian GDP in 2000–2015
, , Russian Journal of Economics 2017 Vol. 3 No. 3 P. 263-279
The article presents a new methodology for estimating gross urban product (the gross domestic product by city or metropolitan level) in Russia under extremely low statistical data availability about economy performance at the local level. These estimates provide new analytical instruments for assessing disparities in economic development between more than 1,000 Russian cities and other ...
Added: October 27, 2017
Теоретичні та емпіричні аспекти економічної оцінки залежності: екологічні імперативи – рівень суспільного розвитку
, Вісник Сумського національного аграрного університету. Серія «Економіка та менеджмент» 2005 No. 3-4(16-17) P. 215-222
Added: October 21, 2014
М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2004
Added: January 27, 2017
, Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 2015 № 1 С. 149-162
The 19th century saw an explosive growth of the gap between the “First” and the “Third” World as regards per capita incomes and levels of life that has become to be known as the “Great Divergence”. In the 20th century the Great Divergence continued up to the early 1970s, and then – in the late ...
Added: December 3, 2015
, , , M. : Sberbank CIB, 2014
Economic growth. The Hungarian economy continued to perform well in 2Q14, GDP growing 3.9% y-o-y, a bit better than in 1Q14 (3.7%) according to the second reading. However, due to base effects (the economy contracted y-o-y in 1Q13 and 2Q13 was the weakest quarter of 2013 at 0.5%), seasonally and calendar-adjusted Q-o-Q GDP growth decelerated ...
Added: May 28, 2015
Innovations in Digital Economy. First International Conference, SPBPU IDE 2019, St. Petersburg, Russia, October 24–25, 2019, Revised Selected Papers
Switzerland : Springer, 2020
This book constitutes the revised and extended papers of the First International Conference on Innovations in Digital Economy, SPBU IDE 2019, held in St. Petersburg, Russia, in October 2019. The 8 papers presented were thoroughly reviewed and selected for publication from 78 submissions. The papers are organized according the following topical sections: economic efficiency and social consequences ...
Added: October 9, 2020
, Macroeconomic Dynamics 2016 Vol. 20 P. 214-228
This work shows the asymmetric effect of the reduction in transportation costs across different sectors in the process of the Great Divergence. Specifically, the analysis indicates that reductions in transportation costs of industrial goods enhance convergence of the growth rates of trading economies. In contrast, reductions in transportation costs of non-industrial goods contribute to a ...
Added: January 31, 2018
Наука – бизнес – образование: проблемы и перспективы компетентностного взаимодействия: Сб. материалов Международной науч.-практич. конф. (22 октября 2012 г., г. Ульяновск)
Ульяновск : УлГУ, 2012
Сб. материалов Международной науч.-практич. конф. (22 октября 2012 г., г. Ульяновск) ...
Added: September 30, 2014