Stress testing as a tool for monitoring and modelling the dynamics of business activity of manufacturing enterprises in Russia in the face of market shocks: short-term scenarios of industry tendencies
There co-exist several problems when measuring the level of competitiveness. The major one is that it represents an integral indicator of the enterprise performance. The indicator has something in common with the notion of the utility function used in economics. The latter one stamps a numerical equivalent of the utility associated by an individual from the consumption (or possession) of certain goods. Nevertheless, it stays an implicit (non-observable) function.
This study presents a snapshot of investment projects in manufacturing that were implemented by foreign investors in Russia during 2017–2018. We assemble a unique database of all new plants opened by foreign companies in Russia during 2012–2018 to clarify the distribution of investment projects implemented during 2017–2018 across industries and territories with different tax regimes. We also identify the most interesting individual investment projects, interrelated investment projects, and elements of collective actions. In general, foreign investors in manufacturing demonstrate high ingenuity in discovering and exploiting the remaining emerging growing market segments and promising niches in consumer and professional markets and express significant persistence in realizing investment projects. We also demonstrate the methods applied to decrease the uncertainty of the project costs by establishing partnerships with local foreign- and domestically owned companies and the attempts to correct the government’s decisions and regulatory measures that are uncomfortable for foreign investors.
This document presents results of non-quantitative observations application and their processing methods, which significantly widen the analytical capabilities of the statistical measurement of the Russian IT market. The need to expand statistical tools that allow to reflect current and future trends in the sectoral development of IT sphere in a fast and visible manner, due to the rapid character of penetration of these services into the Russian market, is argued in the paper.
With the help of business climate indicators and construction of different homogeneous behavior models, analysis of business trends in the financial and economic activities of IT organizations is presented, highlighting the specifics of them functioning within the various cyclic episodes of 2010-2017.
The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project relies on country experts who code a host of ordinal variables, providing subjective ratings of latent|that is, not directly observable regime characteristics over time. Sets of around ve experts rate each case (country-year observation), and each of these raters works independently. Since raters may diverge in their coding because of either differences of opinion or mistakes, we require systematic tools with which to model these patterns of disagreement. These tools allow us to aggregate ratings into point estimates of latent concepts and quantify our uncertainty around these point estimates. In this chapter we describe item response theory models that can that account and adjust for differential item functioning (i.e. differences in how experts apply ordinal scales to cases) and variation in rater reliability (i.e. random error). We also discuss key challenges specic to applying item response theory to expert-coded cross-national panel data, explain the approaches that we use to address these challenges, highlight potential problems with our current framework, and describe long-term plans for improving our models and estimates. Finally, we provide an overview of the different forms in which we present model output.
To help countries achieve their full industrialization potential and fulfil the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and thereby improve their general welfare, UNIDO is promoting the concept of comprehensive and sustainable industrial development (ISID), which was established in the Lima Declaration adopted by UNIDO Member States on 2 December 2013. The UN General Assembly recognizes the significance of ISID as an important strategic direction for fostering global development in the future. ISID is a key instrument for achieving sustainable economic growth, the creation of quality jobs, the building of equal societies, the protection of the environment, and the active shaping of comprehensive sustainable globalization. The promotion of ISID as the key driver for successful integration of economic, social and environmental factors necessary to achieve full implementation of sustainable development by creating and improving countries’ industrial potential is the main priority of UNIDO’s current activities. To successfully implement ISID, UNIDO acts as a global forum for industrial development and the establishment of relevant international standards, including standards on industrial statistics [UNIDO, 2014; 2013a]. Accordingly, UNIDO has been implementing the regional project “Improvement of industrial statistics and development of statistical indicators for the analysis of industrial development in the CIS countries” since 2013. The project’s main objective is to provide methodological assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States’ (CIS) national statistical services in implementing international standards on industrial statistics in the statistical practice and presentation of modern, internationally comparable information for a qualitative and reliable reflection of industrial development processes. This report presents the results of the statistical analysis describing the availability, quality and measurement capabilities of official statistics in the CIS countries accumulated over the period 2005-2014.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.