The paper is focused on assessing the risk factors for Russian manufacturing firms posed by sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU, US, and other countries in 2014. While there is an extensive literature assessing the successes and failures of international sanctions on the economies of both those imposing and targeted by sanctions on a macroeconomic level, we are more interested in trying to understand the corporate response – i.e. which firms evaluate the introduction and increasing scale of economic sanctions as a threat to their corporate strategy, and their possible reactions aimed at adjusting to a changing environment due to the geopolitical shock. Our research, based on a recent survey of manufacturing companies, provides evidence that over the last decade Russian manufacturing firms have become much more integrated into the global economy than is commonly assumed, through foreign direct investment, foreign trade (including imports of both technological equipment and raw materials and components), international partnerships, and by extensively supplying foreign companies that operate in Russia. Considering the self-selection effect of the top-performing firms in terms of foreign trade, we can state that sanctions could prove most harmful not only for the targeted firms, but for the entire population of better-performing and globalized firms involved in foreign trade with the EU and Ukraine. Thus, the impact of the sanctions on the prospects of the Russian manufacturing sector may be very strong over the medium-to-long term.
Comment expliquer le ralentissement de la croissance russe en 2013 ? Quelles réformes ont été engagées dans les industries spatiales et navales ? La libération de l’ancien patron de Ioukos Mikhaïl Khodorkovski annonce-t-elle une ouverture politique de la part de Vladimir Poutine ? Dans quelles valeurs la société russe se reconnaît- elle ? Quels sont les enjeux de la réforme controversée de l’Académie des sciences ? La Russie a-t-elle une stratégie en Arctique ? Pourquoi les Jeux olympiques de Sotchi ont-ils coûté plus cher que prévu ? Les crises syrienne et ukrainienne illustrent-elles le « retour » du Kremlin sur la scène internationale ou les limites de son influence ?
« Russie 2014 », deuxième rapport annuel de l’Observatoire franco- russe, a pour ambition de fournir l’analyse la plus complète possible de la situation en Russie. Économie, politique intérieure et société, régions, politique étrangère et « miscellanées franco-russes », illustrant l’ancienneté, la diversité et la richesse exceptionnelle des relations entre nos deux pays, font de cet ouvrage un document de référence.
Dirigé par Arnaud Dubien, directeur de l’Observatoire franco-russe et ancien directeur de recherche à l’IRIS, « Russie 2014 » réunit les contributions d’une cinquantaine d’experts russes et français reconnus, parmi lesquels Alain Blum, Isabelle Facon, Evgueni Gavrilenkov, Sergueï Karaganov, Nathalie Lapina, Fiodor Loukianov, Rouslan Poukhov, Jean Radvanyi, Marie-Pierre Rey, Konstantin Simonov, Anne de Tinguy.
Foresight has become important in Russia, including identification of National S&T priorities and Critical technologies, and three cycles of the National S&T Foresight being performed during the last decade to guide development of S&T and innovation policies. The chapter shows that Foresight in Russia has evolved from being just one on information source for S&T and innovation policy, towards a full-scale instrument for addressing key issues of these policies. Foresight work and its impacts on major policy challenges and instruments – including development of human resources, bridging the gap between business, R&D and the state, increasing efficiency of budget R&D funding, stimulating innovation – are discussed in light of the Russian experience. Particular attention is paid to Foresight's actual and potential role in developing and implementing such new policy initiatives as the National long-term R&D programme; Technology platforms; Innovation programmes for state-owned companies; and building a system of National Research Universities
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.