Business Climate Indicator in Manufacturing, Medium- and High-Tech Industries in Russia
This paper investigates the ability of Russian business tendency surveys to identify cycli-cal turning points. Presently, when the Russian economy is characterized by concentrating un-certainty, growing gap in opinions and actions of entrepreneurs and decision-makers, im-portance of such qualitative surveys as information resource significantly increased. National business surveys program were launched in 1993; since 2009, regular large-scale sectoral sur-veys are carried out by the Higher School of Economics in co-operation with the Federal State Statistics Service. The study is focused on the issue: whether the aggregate dynamics of busi-ness confidence assessments in Russia conforms to the real economic situation? We have tried to determine to what extent business surveys data are sensitive to phase alternating in cyclical development of the national economy. For this purpose, we have constructed an integrated al-gorithm to build specific indicators, which cover as far as possible all information contained in the sectoral business surveys results. Identification of turning points in these indicators dynam-ics allows us to track the possible ‘averaged’ chronology of the cyclical phase alternation. In addition, we have evaluated retrospective turning points in GDP growth according to extracted cyclical profile in dynamics of the composite Economic Sentiment Indicator
This document presents results of non-quantitative observations application and their processing methods, which significantly widen the analytical capabilities of the statistical measurement of the Russian IT market. The need to expand statistical tools that allow to reflect current and future trends in the sectoral development of IT sphere in a fast and visible manner, due to the rapid character of penetration of these services into the Russian market, is argued in the paper.
With the help of business climate indicators and construction of different homogeneous behavior models, analysis of business trends in the financial and economic activities of IT organizations is presented, highlighting the specifics of them functioning within the various cyclic episodes of 2010-2017.
The chapter describes information content, methodological features and national practices of business tendency surveys (BTS) in Russia. These surveys are conducted jointly by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and the Russian Federation State Statistic Services (Rosstat), and provide qualitative data on sectoral trends and short-term fluctuations over the last two decades.
The Russian BTS system covers a wide range of regions, sectors and economic activities that makes possible sectoral benchmarking. The BTS results have statistically significant compatibility with quantitative statistics and comply with international standards. These properties allow integration of the survey results in both national and international information infrastructures. Composite indicators of business confidence, business climate and economic sentiment provide early warning of changes in sectoral and overall economic activities in Russia.
The paper presents an analytical aspect of business surveys data processing, which allows highlighting key points in the dynamics of small retail businesses economic development in various phases of business cycle (case study: retail trade). In the introduction in addition to calculating balance characteristics and composite indicator of business conditions the authors substantiate the necessity to implement methodological approach to studying behavioral models of economic entities that are attributable to small retail enterprises, based on the statistical distribution of respondents’ answers. In reviewing cluster analysis individual data for clustering is suggested as variables that are an entrepreneurial assesses the actual and expected trends in real time. Features of the application technique of cluster analysis in determining the different «behavioral patterns» can be classified as individual responses of economic agents at different stages of the business cycle. A more thorough examination of this information may be useful in analyses of various operational indicators of organizations activity. This aspect is essential for investigating small business aggregate behavior in specific phases of business cycle, when it is necessary to detail business reaction with respect to actual or expected economic events.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.