Ensemble method for censored demand prediction
Economics. EC. Высшая школа экономики , 2018. No. 200/EC/2018.
Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. These approaches can also be applied to various classes of machine learning models to reduce the prediction error of sales volume. In this study we construct two ensemble models for demand prediction with and without accounting for demand censorship. Accounting for sales censorship is based on the idea of censored quantile regression method where the model estimation is splitted on two separate parts: a) prediction of zero sales by classification model; and b) prediction of non-zero sales by regression model. Models with and without accounting for censorship are based on the predictions aggregations of Least squares, Ridge and Lasso regressions and Random Forest model. Having estimated the predictive properties of both models, we empirically test the best predictive power of the model that takes into account the censored nature of demand. We also show that machine learning method with censorship accounting provide bias corrected estimates of demand sensitivity for price change similar to econometric models.
, , Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2019 Vol. 11331 P. 441-446
In this paper, we analyze a new approach for demand prediction in retail. One of the signicant gaps in demand prediction by machine learning methods is the unaccounted sales data censorship. Econometric approaches to modeling censored demand are used to obtain consistent and unbiased estimates of parameters. These approaches can also be transferred to different ...
Added: October 2, 2018
, , Journal of Forecasting 2019 Vol. 39 No. 3 P. 489-500
In this research we analyze a new approach for prediction of demand. In the studied market of performing arts the observed demand is limited by capacity of the house. Then one needs to account for demand censorship to obtain unbiased estimates of demand function parameters. The presence of consumer segments with different purposes of going ...
Added: November 24, 2019
, , Journal of Forecasting 2018
In this research we analyze new approach for prediction of demand. In the studied market of performing arts the observed demand is limited by capacity of the house. Then one needs to account for demand censorhip to obtain unbiased estimates of demand function parameters. The presence of consumer segments with different purposes of going to ...
Added: October 10, 2017
, , Ensemble method for censored demand prediction / Cornell University. Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2018. No. arXiv:1810.09166.
Added: October 24, 2018
, , Heterogeneity in demand and optimal price conditioning for local rail transport / . 2019.
This paper describes the results of research project on optimal pricing for LLC "Perm Local Rail Company". In this study we propose a regression tree based approach for estimation of demand function for local rail tickets considering high degree of demand heterogeneity by various trip directions and the goals of travel. Employing detailed data on ...
Added: May 31, 2019
, , Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2018 Т. 1 № 37 С. 87-110
Government-subsidized theatres in Russia aim to increase both revenue and number of tickets sold. Achievement of such a goal is closely connected with study of theatre tickets demand function focusing on the estimation of price elasticity of demand. Previous papers studied price elasticity of demand for theatrical performances provide controversial results. Estimates of price elasticity ...
Added: May 4, 2018
Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on Experimental Economics and Machine Learning at the National Research University Higher School of Economics co-located with the Seventh International Conference on Applied Research in Economics (iCare7)
Aachen: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2019
Workshop concentrates on an interdisciplinary approach to modelling human behavior incorporating data mining and expert knowledge from behavioral sciences. Data analysis results extracted from clean data of laboratory experiments will be compared with noisy industrial datasets from the web e.g. Insights from behavioral sciences will help data scientists. Behavior scientists will see new inspirations to ...
Added: November 19, 2019
, , Journal of Cultural Economics 2016
This paper studies the behavior patterns among the theatre's attendants in the process of tickets purchase. Since the theatre attempts to balance between the high rate of occupancy and the aordable prices for the spectator, the purpose of the study is to reveal the eects of changes in prices on attendance rate on dierent levels ...
Added: October 13, 2016
, , Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт. Финансовый журнал 2019 Т. 47 № 1 С. 76-87
In the field of cryptoeconomics the Ethereum (Ethereum Foundation) project gave opportunity to create “own” cryptocurrency – new token based on its smart-contract platform to everyone without lowlevel programming skills. Then it became obvious that tokens could be used for crowdfunding as the Ethereum did in 2014. Unregulated and easy to access such scheme became popular among related to ...
Added: November 5, 2020
, , Demand for performing arts: the effect of unobserved quality on price elasticity / . 2016. No. 05 - 2016.
This paper studies the behavior patterns among the theatre’s attendants in the process of ticket’s purchase. Since the theatre attempts to balance between the high rate of occupancy and the affordable prices for the spectator, the purpose of the study is to reveal the effects of changes in prices on attendance rate on different levels ...
Added: June 13, 2016
, , Новости маркетинга 2007 № 4 С. 9-17
Удалось выявить, что наиболее точные методы ценообразования, позволяющие определить оптимальную цену, допустимые границы цены и потенциальный объем рынка – методы тестирования цены. ...
Added: December 9, 2012
Comparison of Empirical Methods for the Reproduction of Global Manufacturing Companies’ Credit Ratings
, , et al., International Journal of Technology 2020 Vol. 11 No. 6 P. 1223-1232
The quantitative assessment of the credit quality of manufacturing companies is a task of great interest to researchers and practitioners. This is underpinned by the elevated credit risk of these companies stemming from rapid technological changes. However, few studies have addressed this issue specifically for manufacturing companies. This study aimed to fill this research gap ...
Added: December 9, 2020
Key Determinants of demand, credit underwriting, and performance of government-insured mortgage loans in Russia
, , Key Determinants of demand, credit underwriting, and performance of government-insured mortgage loans in Russia / . 2016. No. 16/03E.
This research analyses the process of lending from Russian state-owned mortgage provider. Two-level lending and insurance of mortgage system lead to substantially higher default rates for insured loans. This means that underwriting incentives for regional operators of government mortgage loans perform poorly. We use loan-level data of issued mortgage by one regional government mortgage provided ...
Added: April 5, 2016
Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Experimental Economics and Machine Learning (EEML 2017), Dresden, Germany, September 17-18, 2017
Aachen: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2017
Workshop concentrates on an interdisciplinary approach to modeling human behavior incorporating data mining and/or expert knowledge from behavioral sciences. Data analysis results extracted from clean data of laboratory experiments can be compared with noisy industrial data-sets from the web e.g.. Insights from behavioral sciences will help data scientists. Behavior scientists will see new inspirations to ...
Added: October 10, 2017
, Journal of European Real Estate Research 2017 Vol. 10 No. 1 P. 35-56
Purpose: This paper examines heterogeneity of preferences of mortgage borrowers of Russian state-owned supplier of residential housing mortgages. Methodology: Analysis takes into account the underwriting process and the choice of contract terms of all loans originated from 2008 to 2012. Our dataset contains demographic and financial characteristics for all applications, loan terms and the performance information ...
Added: December 23, 2016
Istanbul: EBES, 2013
This conference proceeding includes selected full papers from the 11th EBES Conference – Ekaterinburg. We have accepted papers among resubmitted full papers after the conference ended. In this proceeding you will find a snapshot of topics that are presented in the conference. As expected, our conference has been an intellectual hub for academic discussion for ...
Added: October 24, 2013
, Логистика и управление цепями поставок 2018 № 4 (87) С. 27-33
One of the options for a more flexible approach to analyzing the reliability of supply chains is the principal component analysis (PCA). With a large number of variables describing supply chain, it is a difficult task to analyze the structure of variables in two-dimensional space. Within the analysis of the variables dependencies PCA allows to ...
Added: November 29, 2018
, , et al., Voting: a machine learning approach / . 2020. No. 145.
Voting rules can be assessed from quite different perspectives: the axiomatic, the pragmatic, in terms of computational or conceptual simplicity, susceptibility to manipulation, and many others aspects. In this paper, we take the machine learning perspective and ask how ‘well’ a few prominent voting rules can be learned by a neural network. To address this ...
Added: October 31, 2021
, Quantitative Marketing and Economics 2018
Theatrical productions are supposed to be perishable good, since the tickets for a particular play cannot be inventoried and sold after a time of play. In the revenue management of a perishable good price discrimination is widely used. Since the theatre audience is heterogeneous in terms of visit purpose, ability to perceive quality, willingness-to-pay, the strategy of price discrimination is ...
Added: October 12, 2018
Востребованность второго высшего образования: эмпирические оценки для руководителей компаний в России
, Вопросы образования 2015 № 3 С. 208-229
We review the most widespread theoretical models of demand for higher education. We use weekly Vedomostipublications on appointments of senior executives in Russian companies and Russian branches of foreign companies from the late 1999 to the late 2009 to analyze the education level of Russian senior executives: what first higher education they reseived and where; ...
Added: September 28, 2015
Оценивание функции спроса на дифференцированный товар с эндогенными характеристиками и разнородностью предпочтений: случай ипотечных кредитов
, Прикладная эконометрика 2017 Т. 45 № 1 С. 93-115
This paper analyzes the mortgage borrowing process from a Russian state-owned supplier of residential housing mortgages concentrating on the estimation of demand function with heterogeneous borrowers’ preferences. Analysis takes into account the underwriting process and the choice of contract terms of all loans originated from 2008 to 2012. Our dataset contains demographic and financial characteristics ...
Added: December 23, 2016
, , Бизнес-информатика 2019 Т. 13 № 3 С. 52-66
This paper is devoted to comparison of the capabilities of various methods to predict the bankruptcy of construction industry companies on a one-year horizon. The authors considered the following algorithms: logit and probit models, classification trees, random forests, artificial neural networks. Special attention was paid to the peculiarities of the training machine learning models, the impact of data ...
Added: December 8, 2019
, , Экономический анализ: теория и практика 2016 Т. 10 № 457 С. 168-182
Objective: the main objective of the paper is to systemize the approaches to reveal consumer preferences in the market if performing arts. We focus on the data used in empirical studies, main variables and their measures to determine the preferences and econometric methods of preferences identification. Methodology: we use metaanalysis of recent papers on the estimation ...
Added: September 21, 2016
, , Философия хозяйства 2016 № 3 С. 128-138
Identifying and changing tastes of customers, market segmentation, targeted ads are the basis of modern marketing policy of every company. Marketing basics were laid in the 50-ies of XX century. When the problem of adapting demand increased as a result of technological progress the proposal has become a necessary condition for economic growth. The article identifies Malthus and Veblen ideas ...
Added: September 1, 2016