A Framework for Extracting the Probability of Default from Stock Option Prices
We suggest an econometric model of probability of default based on regular financial disclosures of Russian banks. We also suggest a quantization of the continuous explanatory variables that allows to account for non-linear effects and to achieve superior accuracy compared with regression tree and Bayesian network models estimated over the same sample. The econometric estimates of probability of default are broadly consistent with the historical default frequencies of rated obligors and risk-neutral probabilities of default inferred from credit spreads in a reduced-form model.
The cornerstone of retail banking risk management is the estimation of the expected losses when granting a loan to the borrower. The key driver for loss estimation is probability of default (PD) of the borrower. Assessing PD lies in the area of classification problem. In this paper we apply FCA query-based classification techniques to Kaggle open credit scoring data. We argue that query based classification allows one to achieve higher classification accuracy as compared to applying classical banking models and still to retain interpretability of model results, whereas black-box methods grant better accuracy but diminish interpretability.
The article gives an overview of the main approaches to verification of the internal rating methods of analysis of the creditworthiness. The article gives practical advice on the application of these techniques by an example of real internal rating technique.
In the paper some prominent features of a modern financial system are studied using the model of leverage dynamics. Asset securitization is considered as a major factor increasing aggregate debt and hence systems uncertainty and instability. A simple macrofinancial model includes a logistic equation of leverage dynamics that reveals origins of a financial bubble, thus corresponding closely to the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using ROA, ROE, and the interest rate as parameters, the model provides wide spectrum of leverage and default probability trajectories for the short and long run.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.