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Prospects of monetary policy normalization in major currency areas
Dabrowski M.
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures. Failure to do so in right time may create serious macroeconomic and financial stability risks.
Dabrowski M., / CASE - Center for Social Economic Research. Series CASE Reports "CASE Reports". 2020. No. 501.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, ...
Added: October 26, 2020
Dabrowski M., Warsz. : Center for Social and Economic Research, 2018
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007‒2009 and the anti--crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that ...
Added: June 25, 2018
Dabrowski M., / CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research. Series ISBN: 978-83-7178-718-8 "CASE Reports". 2021. No. 504.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic ...
Added: May 20, 2021
Karev M. G., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2011 № 9 С. 72-97
В работе предлагается формальный метод выявления предпочтений российского регулятора как на качественном, так и на количественном уровне. Основная идея заключается в том, чтобы по наблюдаемому поведению инструмента денежной политики (номинального обменного курса) сделать заключение о лежащих в основе этого поведения предпочтениях ЦБ. Для количественного анализа используется имитационная модель российской экономики. Метод основывается на включении в ...
Added: December 26, 2012
Savitskaya E. V., M. : Litterra, 2018
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Added: October 21, 2014
Gavrilenkov E. E., Лисоволик Я. Д., Abramov A., Вестник Национальной ассоциации участников фондового рынка (НАУФОР) 2014 № 3 С. 24-40
Discussion about the problems of economic growth in Russia ...
Added: May 16, 2014
Elahovsky V., Российская экономика: прогнозы и тенденции 2019 № 1-12 С. 10-12
Based on monthly statistical data on indicators of the monetary sphere of Russia its condition is analyzed and short-term prospects of its change are estimated ...
Added: October 28, 2019
Goryunov E., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 12 С. 120-140
The theory of switching modes of reproduction (SMR) is a relatively new branch of heterodox macroeconomic theory. The SMR-models have two distinctive properties: they allow endogenous economic cycles and posess non-neutrality of money in the long term. The latter property means that in the SMR-models monetary expansion can effectively stimulate economic growth. The original form ...
Added: December 22, 2023
Goryunov E., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 3 С. 126-158
The indicator of monetization of the economy; equal to the ratio of nominal money supply to nominal GDP; is very popular among Russian economists and is used to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued and is often employed in cross-country comparisons. Many economists believe that the monetization of the Russian economy is excessively ...
Added: August 23, 2023
Tovar-García E. D., Nugroho I. P., Asia-Pacific Social Science Review 2015 Vol. 15 No. 2 P. 19-32
Religion, ethnicity, and politics are typical explanatory variables of violent conflicts. From an economic point of view, economic growth reduces the risk of civil war, yet the economic determinants of conflict have been little studied. In this article, we empirically study the impact of regional macroeconomic conditions on the number of violent conflicts in Indonesia, ...
Added: October 27, 2015
Sokolova A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP12 "Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа". 2013. No. 3.
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of infl ation expectations in Russia. The signifi cance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both infl ation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinfl ation measures introduced ...
Added: January 23, 2014
Sokolova A., Economic Modelling 2015 Vol. 48 P. 189-198
This paper studies the monetary policy trade-off between low inflation and low sovereign risk in the environment where fiscal authorities fail to fully ensure the sustainability of government debt. Building on the Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) and the Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk (FTSR), this paper differs in its baseline assumption about the ...
Added: October 8, 2014
Dabrowski M., / Vaildai Club. Series Valdai Club Expert Opinions "Valdai Club Expert Opinions". 2021.
The most recent inflation data from the US and several other countries signal that consumer prices started to rise. The question remains open whether this is a temporary post-pandemic rebound or the beginning of a more persistent inflationary trend ...
Added: June 11, 2021
Dabrowski M., Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium (De Gruyter) 2021 Vol. 11 P. 1-47
Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global
financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy ...
Added: May 20, 2021
Akaev A., Ziyadullaev N. S., Sarygulov A. I. et al., Studies on Russian Economic Development 2016 Vol. 27 No. 5 P. 510-517
Based on the simulation of medium-term economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation, the article analyzes the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and presents a forecast of economic growth in the near-term outlook (2015–2018) under different scenarios of change in the key interest rate. ...
Added: October 28, 2018
Sokolova A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2013. No. 39.
In times of fiscal stress, governments fail to adjust fiscal policy in line with the requirements for debt sustainability. Under these circumstances, monetary policy impacts the probability of sovereign default alongside inflation dynamics. Uribe (2006) studies the relationship between inflation and sovereign defaults with a model in which the central bank controls a risky interest ...
Added: January 22, 2014
Demidova O., Karnaukhova E., Коршунов Д. А. et al., Вопросы экономики 2021 № 6 С. 77-102
We analyze the heterogeneous influence that monetary policy has on the growth rates of real personal income in 79 Russian regions over the period from 2Q2015 to 4Q2019, taking into account some of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism and spatial effects. The analysis was performed on the basis of panel data and a ...
Added: June 11, 2021
Myasnikov A., Экономика региона 2018 Т. 14 № 4 С. 1168-1180
The article investigates the major determinants of total factor productivity of Russian regions, in particular, the role of
spillovers and agglomeration effects. Agglomeration effects are found to be important in regions located in the European part of Russia and in regions with low shares of extraction in the gross regional product (GRP): employment density in such ...
Added: March 29, 2019
Mozias P., Азия и Африка сегодня 2013 № 10 С. 44-48
This article deals with the issues of economic growth in South Africa during the post-apartheid period. Drivers of economic dynamics are analysed, including institutional and financial reforms which have been carried out by the ANC’s government. Domestic and external reasons for the slowdown of economic development at the turn of decades are also discussed in ...
Added: January 24, 2014
Бочкарев С. А., Zhalinsky A. E., Имущественные отношения в Российской Федерации 2010 № 9 С. 10-19
In this paper a study of criminal law mechanism for the protection of property with aim of establishing its relationship with inflation and deflation processes, aggravated in the Russian economy in the current financial crisis. As a result, the author found that the application of the criminal law does not solve the problem of stratification ...
Added: October 25, 2012
Assessment of gross urban product in Russian cities and its contribution to Russian GDP in 2000–2015
Tatyana D. Polidi, Nadezhda B. Kosareva, Russian Journal of Economics 2017 Vol. 3 No. 3 P. 263-279
The article presents a new methodology for estimating gross urban product (the gross domestic product by city or metropolitan level) in Russia under extremely low statistical data availability about economy performance at the local level. These estimates provide new analytical instruments for assessing disparities in economic development between more than 1,000 Russian cities and other ...
Added: October 27, 2017
Azarnert L. V., Macroeconomic Dynamics 2016 Vol. 20 P. 214-228
This work shows the asymmetric effect of the reduction in transportation costs across different sectors in the process of the Great Divergence. Specifically, the analysis indicates that reductions in transportation costs of industrial goods enhance convergence of the growth rates of trading economies. In contrast, reductions in transportation costs of non-industrial goods contribute to a ...
Added: January 31, 2018
Slobodyan S., International Journal of Central Banking 2018 Vol. 14 No. 2 P. 337-346
I argue that the rather unfavorable conclusions of the three papers in the session on "Coordination and Tradeoffs" might not be as bad as they seem. In particular, I dwell on challenges facing the central bank using an interest rate that is different from the risk-free rate in its Taylor rule, and show that proper ...
Added: October 7, 2018