### Working paper

## Scalable Gaussian Processes with Billions of Inducing Inputs via Tensor Train Decomposition

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We develop an automated variational inference method for Bayesian structured prediction problems with Gaussian process (GP) priors and linear-chain likelihoods. Our approach does not need to know the details of the structured likelihood model and can scale up to a large number of observations. Furthermore, we show that the required expected likelihood term and its gradients in the variational objective (ELBO) can be estimated efficiently by using expectations over very low-dimensional Gaussian distributions. Optimization of the ELBO is fully parallelizable over sequences and amenable to stochastic optimization, which we use along with control variate techniques to make our framework useful in practice. Results on a set of natural language processing tasks show that our method can be as good as (and sometimes better than, in particular with respect to expected log-likelihood) hard-coded approaches including svm-struct and crfs, and overcomes the scalability limitations of previous inference algorithms based on sampling. Overall, this is a fundamental step to developing automated inference methods for Bayesian structured prediction.

Deep neural networks are surprisingly efficient at solving practical tasks, but the theory behind this phenomenon is only starting to catch up with the practice. Numerous works show that depth is the key to this efficiency. A certain class of deep convolutional networks -- namely those that correspond to the Hierarchical Tucker (HT) tensor decomposition -- has been proven to have exponentially higher expressive power than shallow networks. I.e. a shallow network of exponential width is required to realize the same score function as computed by the deep architecture. In this paper, we prove the expressive power theorem (an exponential lower bound on the width of the equivalent shallow network) for a class of recurrent neural networks -- ones that correspond to the Tensor Train (TT) decomposition. This means that even processing an image patch by patch with an RNN can be exponentially more efficient than a (shallow) convolutional network with one hidden layer. Using theoretical results on the relation between the tensor decompositions we compare expressive powers of the HT- and TT-Networks. We also implement the recurrent TT-Networks and provide numerical evidence of their expressivity.

In the paper we present a new framework for dealing with probabilistic graphical models. Our approach relies on the recently proposed Tensor Train format (TT-format) of a tensor that while being compact allows for efficient application of linear algebra operations. We present a way to convert the energy of a Markov random field to the TT-format and show how one can exploit the properties of the TT-format to attack the tasks of the partition function estimation and the MAP-inference. We provide theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the proposed algorithm for estimating the partition function and compare our methods against several state-of-the-art algorithms.

In the paper we present a new framework for dealing with probabilistic graphical models. Our approach relies on the recently proposed Tensor Train format (TT-format) of a tensor that while being compact allows for efficient application of linear algebra operations. We present a way to convert the energy of a Markov random field to the TT-format and show how one can exploit the properties of the TT-format to attack the tasks of the partition function estimation and the MAP-inference. We provide theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the proposed algorithm for estimating the partition function and compare our methods against several state-of-the-art algorithms.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.

Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability

The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.

Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.