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Working paper

Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football

Parshakov P., Байдина К. О.
This study estimates an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH), using data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL). These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have hitherto been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioural pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between the attendance and uncertainty is found to be U-shaped or even declining. We explain the U-shaped dependence by the visiting team effect; an attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a top team coming to the city than on the uncertainty of the outcome of the match.