### Working paper

## Robust Variational Inference

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The classical parametric and semiparametric Bernstein – von Mises (BvM) results are reconsidered in a non-classical setup allowing finite samples and model misspecification. In the case of a finite dimensional nuisance parameter we obtain an upper bound on the error of Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution for the target parameter which is explicit in the dimension of the nuisance and target parameters. This helps to identify the so called critical dimension p of the full parameter for which the BvM result is applicable. In the important i.i.d. case, we show that the condition “p^3 / n is small” is sufficient for the BvM result to be valid under general assumptions on the model. We also provide an example of a model with the phase transition effect: the statement of the BvM theorem fails when the dimension pn approaches n^{1/3} . The results are extended to the case of infinite dimensional parameters with the nuisance parameter from a Sobolev class.

Recently proposed distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process (ddCRP) generalizes extensively used Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) by accounting for dependencies between data points. Its posterior is intractable and so far only MCMC methods were used for inference. Because of very different nature of ddCRP no prior developments in variational methods for Bayesian nonparametrics are appliable. In this paper we propose novel variational inference for important sequential case of ddCRP (seqddCRP) by revealing its connection with Laplacian of random graph constructed by the process. We develop efficient algorithm for optimizing variational lower bound and demonstrate its efficiency comparing to Gibbs sampler. We also apply our variational approximation to CRP-equivalent seqddCRP-mixture model, where it could be considered as alternative to one based on truncated stick-breaking representation. This allowed us to achieve significantly better variational lower bound than variational approximation based on truncated stick breaking for Dirichlet process.

Recently proposed distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process (ddCRP) generalizes extensively used Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) by accounting for dependencies between data points. Its posterior is intractable and so far only MCMC methods were used for inference. Because of very different nature of ddCRP no prior developments in variational methods for Bayesian nonparametrics are appliable. In this paper we propose novel variational inference for important sequential case of ddCRP (seqddCRP) by revealing its connection with Laplacian of random graph constructed by the process. We develop efficient algorithm for optimizing variational lower bound and demonstrate its efficiency comparing to Gibbs sampler. We also apply our variational approximation to CRPequivalent seqddCRP-mixture model, where it could be considered as alternative to one based on truncated stick-breaking representation. This allowed us to achieve significantly better variational lower bound than variational approximation based on truncated stick breaking for Dirichlet process.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.

Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability

The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.

Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.