International Gas Projects of Russia in the Context of Changing Economic Environment and Paradigm
Abstract The paper reveals the influence of vertical integration on the performance of companies in emerging markets, calculated as Lerner index. The model was developed to estimate the impact of vertically integrated companies, as well as in case of disintegration. The empirical correlation of profitability of companies from BRIC and the factors defining it in case of vertical integration was investigated, which was tested on the data for 2004-2012. Key significant factors in a cut of branches and the countries from BRIC are defined. The study will help to understand whether there is a trend towards diminishing dependency of the efficiency of companies’ performance from the high rate of vertical integration in the emerging capital markets and whether the economy of developing countries is ready to create competitive market conditions with a lot of independent companies in the industries where currently prevails oligopoly. The results of this work will allow companies’ management choose the optimal way of development in the context of possible vertical integration or disintegration transactions in a particular industry. Current research was motivated by trend towards disintegration with the creation of several competitive niche companies instead of one large in developed capital markets. At the same time, the evidences of effectiveness of both independent companies and vertically integrated giants in the industry are stated. To find out which strategy is more effective, this paper analyzes the influence of the vertical integration degree on the efficiency of companies’ performance.
The article focuses on analysis of the main factors that influence the volume of commodities export and import in BRICS countries. As a key factor destabilizing the trade in commodities during the period of 2007 – 2011 the author identifies price volatility. The author analyses key measures, undertaken by BRICS governments at the national and international level. The author makes a forecast on the future role of BRICS in stabilizing the international trade in commodities and in contributing to food security.
We analyze the possibility of improving the prediction of stock market indicators by adding information about public mood ex- pressed in Twitter posts. To estimate public mood, we analysed frequencies of 175 emotional markers - words, emoticons, acronyms and abbreviations - in more than two billion tweets collected via Twitter API over a period from 13.02.2013 to 22.04.2015. We explored the Granger causality relations between stock market returns of S&P500, DJIA, Apple, Google, Facebook, Pzer and Exxon Mobil and emotional markers frequencies. We found that 17 emotional markers out of 175 are Granger causes of changes in returns without reverse eect. These frequencies were tested by Bayes Information Criteria to determine whether they provide additional information to the baseline ARMAX-GARCH model. We found Twitter data can provide additional information and managed to improve prediction as compared to a model based solely on emotional markers.
Overvaluation on financial markets, high price volatility and quite rapid reduction of emerging markets towards an investment behavior field in terms of predictive estimation and forecast of further market changes. Hereby decision-making basis is a personal investment understanding and, due to favorable business climate, could build up the growth of irrational exuberance and speculative bubbles on financial markets.
This study models Market Certainty Index as a measure of asset overpricing and market overvaluation in terms of a speculative bubble concept. The results also provide insights of how to enhance the facility of overpriced assets studies at non-transparent economies or emerging markets.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.