Non-Keynesian savings of Russians
Basic research program. WP BRP. National Research University Higher School of Economics , 2015. No. 20.
Russian recession of 2014/2015 began with ruble run and rise of inflation. It is just the opposite of the western-type deflationary slump combined with money hoarding. Does it mean that Russians need different micro-model to describe saving and consumption behavior? This study show that work-horse log-linearized rational SDF with CRRA utility still provides good explanation for Russian consumers. It explains dollarization, domestic equity market avoidance, preference for real estate, and chiefly - wary attitude towards rubles. Expectations derived from the past and interactive preferences lock macro economy in the state of steadfast distrust in ruble, prone to inflation. For a while one should not expect Keynesian-type deflationary cycle in Russia. The next recession is likely to be inflationary, requiring monetary tightening. This reasoning is generalized for other emerging countries. Free-floating currency and inflation targeting do not mean easy way ahead for the country with recent negative inflation experience.
Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time: An experience of the 2008-09 recession
, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2014 No. 1 P. 103-128
This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread ...
Added: July 18, 2014
, Evaluating the Hybrid Phillips Curve for Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP12 "Научные доклады лаборатории макроэкономического анализа". 2013. No. 3.
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of infl ation expectations in Russia. The signifi cance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both infl ation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinfl ation measures introduced ...
Added: January 23, 2014
, , , Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2015 Т. 19 № 4 С. 534-553
At first, we discuss whether the concept of economic cycles is at all applicable to the realities of the Russian economy. As for several subperiods during the last 35 years, it has been not only market but planned and transformed also, this issue is arguable. But in our opinion, all mid-term factors of total economic ...
Added: November 6, 2015
, International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 2014 Vol. 4 No. 1/2 P. 254 -268
The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. ...
Added: April 25, 2014
, , , Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016
, , Monetary policy in an economy sick with Dutch Disease / ЦЭФИР и РЭШ. Series WP101-1 "Научные труды ЦЭФИР и РЭШ". 2007. No. 101.
The paper studies monetary policy in an economy, in which the manufacturing sector is ousted completely by the presence of a large natural resource industry. Thus, the economy produces only non-tradable goods, which can complement or substitute imported goods, and the primary shock to the economy comes from the ”uctuations in the world price of ...
Added: April 22, 2013
, Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist? / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability ...
Added: November 28, 2014
Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia
, Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to develop leading indicators of business cycle turning points for OECD countries and Russia, in order to reveal common factors of their macroeconomic processes over a long period of time. To predict cycle turning points, leading indicator models with a discrete dependent variable reflecting a business cycle phase ...
Added: February 20, 2014
International Transmission of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stress Shocks from the Euro Area to Russia
, , et al., Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 2022 Vol. 11 No. 1 P. 227-247
This paper studies the international transmission of the euro area´s monetary policy and financial stress to Russia. The results show that financial stress in the euro area damages Russian economic activity and stock prices, but not its trade balance. The contractionary euro area monetary policy shock decreases Russian GDP, leads to real appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble, damages ...
Added: September 7, 2022
, Проблемы теории и практики управления 2016 № 6 С. 109-114
Methodological issues related to designing a system of indicators for tracing Russian business cycle are discussed. Several definitions of economic cycles in their application to the Russian economy are considered. Possible approaches to dating turning points, constructing composite cyclical indicators and their using for monitoring and forecasting cyclical trajectory are analyzed. ...
Added: June 29, 2016
М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2004
Added: January 27, 2017
Copula-Application To Modelling Russian Banking System Capital Adequacy According to Basel II IRB-Approach
, , Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2012 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 267-280
According to the strategy of the banking system development until 2015, the Central Bank of Russia is going to implement Basel II Internal-Ratings-Based (IRB) approaches in 2015, while Basel III is planned to be introduced in full starting from 2019. Taking into account the effects of the Basel II regulation during the crisis 2008-2009, in ...
Added: November 6, 2012
Exports-performance relationship in Russian manufacturing companies: Does foreign ownership play an enhancing role?
, , Baltic Journal of Management 2018 Vol. 13 No. 1 P. 20-40
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between export activity and firm performance for a positive impact of foreign direct investments. We also analyse two possible causes of the effect: technology transfer and financial support. The theoretical background is rooted in the resource-based approach taking into account multinational companies’ perspective ...
Added: October 15, 2016
, Деньги и кредит 2005 № 2 С. 37-47
В статье рассматривается роль и место банков, контролируемых иностранным капиталом, на рынке частных сбережений. Делается попытка оценить, как присутствие этих банков влияет на отношение населения к банковской системе в целом. Российские тенденции сопоставляются с опытом других стран с переходной экономикой в Центральной и Восточной Европе и Юго-Восточной Европе. ...
Added: December 6, 2010
М. : ИМЭМО РАН, 2016
The collection of extended analytical reports presented at the international conference of young scholars “Transformation of World Energy: Market Mechanisms and State Policy” organized by Center of Energy Studies, IMEMO RAN and Faculty of International Energy Business, Gubkin Russian State Oil and Gas University in April, 2016. Undergraduate and postgraduate students of leading Russian universities ...
Added: August 31, 2016
, Russland-Analysen 2010 No. 200 P. 2-4
The paper gives an overview on unemployemnt in Russia and the concequances of the crisis of 2008. ...
Added: December 9, 2012
, , Post-Communist Economies 2010 Vol. 22 No. 3 P. 283-302
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the ...
Added: October 4, 2012
Global challenges and trends in agriculture: impacts on Russia and possible strategies for adaptation
, , Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 218-250
Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment. Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the ...
Added: June 23, 2017
, , Post-Soviet Affairs 2018 Vol. 34 No. 6 P. 412-429
This study seeks to discuss the survivability of charitable NGOs in Russia without foreign funding. We use cross-section data from a quantitative household survey conducted in April 2016 to investigate common giving patterns of Russians. Using statistic and regression analysis, we explore causes of donations and individual and social attributes of charitable giving in general ...
Added: October 5, 2018
State-controlled "national champions" of the Russian banking market: Concentration, competitiveness, and efficiency
, State-controlled "national champions" of the Russian banking market: Concentration, competitiveness, and efficiency / Social Science Research Network. Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2013. No. 2223686.
This paper tries to assess some of the effects from industrial policy of growing state-controlled "national champions" in the Russian banking industry. We look at market concentration and competitiveness and average bank efficiency. A modified method of calculating the indicators of market concentration suggests that main segments of the market have crossed the threshold of high ...
Added: February 25, 2013
М. : Русский сувенир, 2009
В коллективном исследовании особое внимание уделяется важнейшим элементам экономической безопасности, значение которых в сегодняшнем мире постоянно растёт. Вместе с ними рассмотрен комплекс социальных, правовых, экологических и иных проблем, в совокупности составляющих то, что можно назвать невоенными аспектами национальной и международной безопасности. ...
Added: April 13, 2013
Концепция «продовольственных режимов» как модель объяснения стратегий аграрного развития (на примере России и Бразилии)
, , et al., Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Социология 2019 Т. 19 № 2 С. 261-276
The ‘food regime’ approach was introduced as a historical method of “incorporated comparison” (P. McMichael). This comparison of the role of agriculture in the world-system made some scholars overemphasize an excessively unitary and coherent global food regime. The authors recognize this approach as a historical-comparative analytical tool to understand global trends, but argue that the Russian and Brazilian agrarian ...
Added: June 24, 2019
, , , Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
, Научный журнал НИУ ИТМО. Серия: Экономика и экологический менеджмент 2015 Т. 21 № 2 С. 77-84
This article discusses the range of issues concerning the laws governing the formation of growth factors in the value of the interaction of industrial firms with a bank in a recession. Purpose - to test the installation of the conceptual model of investment and lending activities of industrial companies for evaluation of management effectiveness. In ...
Added: April 17, 2015