Technological Foundations of Political Instability
Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Series. ISSN 0265-8003. Centre for Economic Policy Research , 2013. No. 9787.
There has been a wide-spread belief that elections with a wide franchise following removal of an oppressive dictator lead to establishment of a government that is not vulnerable to mass protest. At the same time, most of the post-World War II non-constitutional exits of recently-installed autocratic leaders were caused by elite coups, rather than popular protests. The recent experience of Egypt, where the democratic post-Mubarak government, a result of the Arab Spring, collapsed after having had almost uninterrupted protests since its first day in office, offers a striking counterexample to both of these patterns. We demonstrate that this is a general phenomenon: the same technological shock, arrival of social media, that makes the incumbent vulnerable, lays foundation for continuous instability of the subsequent democratic government. Our theoretical model, which incorporates protest into a Downsian framework, takes into account specific features of modern protests: the significant role of social media and the absence of the partisan or personalized leadership during popular unrest. Case studies of the Arab countries with and without large-scale protests corroborate our theoretical findings.
, , , European Journal of Political Economy 2019 Vol. 60 P. 101812
Why do some newly introduced revolutionary governments face anti-government demonstrations and swiftly exit office, while others are able to establish political regimes that last for decades? Historical evidence finds revolutionary governments in the first decade of twenty-first century to be three times more vulnerable to mass protest than a hundred years ago. What can explain ...
Added: August 19, 2019
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019
Political, social, and economic transformation is a complex historical phenomenon. It can adequately be analysed only by a multidisciplinary approach. The Handbook brings together an international team of scholars who are specialists in their respective research fields. It introduces the most important areas, theories, and methods in transformation research, with particular attention placed on ...
Added: October 4, 2019
The Collective Action of Think Tanks as a Driver for Reforms: The Case of the Russian Analytical Community
, , , Economic Alternatives 2017 No. 4 P. 495-514
The article suggests that in Russia, despite the difficult political and operational environment, the economic think tank (TT) community could play a critical role in building up consensus for selecting the new country’s developmental model. This conclusion is based on the analysis of the current state of Russia’s TT sector and the identification of factors ...
Added: October 7, 2019
, , Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar 2011 Vol. 13 P. 139-169
It is not surprising that Mubarak’s administration “overlooked” the social explosion. Indeed, statistical data righteously claimed that the country was developing very successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis years). Poverty and inequality levels were among the lowest in the Third World. Global food prices were rising, but the government was taking ...
Added: March 9, 2013
Исследование зависимости между активностью соискателей в социальных сетях и их трудоустройством и карьерным ростом
, , Экономика и предпринимательство 2014 № 12 С. 457-463
The article presents the results of the analysis of the following hypothesis: does the activity of candidates in social networks leads to success in employment and career development. Considering several major social networks in Russia, there was a survey conducted and the results of the survey were analyzed and it was concluded that the activity in ...
Added: October 24, 2014
Коллективные действия иностранного бизнеса в России: основные организационные формы, этапы и факторы их развития
, , , Коллективные действия иностранного бизнеса в России: основные организационные формы, этапы и факторы их развития / НИУ ВШЭ. Серия WP1 "Институциональные проблемы российской экономики". 2017. № 01.
The paper uses the evidence from Russia to analyze the arrangements for interaction between foreign firms (FF) and key national partners in the countries of their operations, review the actual mechanisms for collective action selected by FF operating in the Russian market, and assess the effectiveness of such mechanisms. The analysis focuses on foreign business ...
Added: June 22, 2017
, Acta Oeconomica 2016 Vol. 66 No. 2 P. 181-212
At the onset of the mass protests in 2010–2011, many politicians and experts suggested that Arab countries could learn from the experiences of the post-communist transition of the early 1990s. However, the geopolitical, historical, and socio-economic context of the Arab transition was different in many respects from that of the former Soviet bloc countries 20 ...
Added: September 17, 2016
Innovation for despots? How dictators and democratic leaders differ in stifling innovation and misusing natural resources across 114 countries
, , Energy Research and Social Science 2020 Vol. 68 P. 1-12
Conventional wisdom holds that natural resource abundance negatively affects economic development, especially in countries with weak quality of governance. In this paper we raise a related, yet separate, question that was largely overlooked in the literature - the effect of natural resource rents on technological innovations, a very specific type of economic activity. We argue ...
Added: June 4, 2021
, , World Futures: Journal of General Evolution 2012 Vol. 68 No. 7 P. 471-505
In a previous article, The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. ...
Added: February 4, 2013
How to Get Away with Murder in Russia: Political Support in the Times of Crisis. Evidence from the survey experiment
, , How to Get Away with Murder in Russia: Political Support in the Times of Crisis. Evidence from the survey experiment / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2017. No. WP BRP 47/PS/2017.
Economic crises are expected to erode domestic political support for the existing regime. However, in comparison with democracies, autocracies enjoy more of a leeway responding to economic downturns due to their ability to strengthen their clientelist ties and increase the level of repression ('the tragic brilliance'). Since 2013, the Russian economy has been undergoing a ...
Added: July 6, 2017
Regional International Organizations as a Strategy of Autocracy: The Eurasian Economic Union and Russian foreign policy
, , International Affairs 2018 Vol. 94 No. 5 P. 1037-1058
This article investigates whether and how regional international organizations created by authoritarian countries can aid the regime survival of their member states. Numerous regions of the world have witnessed a proliferation of regional organizations established by powerful authoritarian states. We argue that the external influence of these organizations can affect regime survival and reinforce non-democratic ...
Added: October 18, 2018
The Antidemocratic Drift in the Early 21st Century: Some Thoughts on its Roots, Dynamics and Prospects
, Central European Business Review 2021 Vol. 10 No. 2 P. 63-83
In the first two decades of the 21st century, the previous democratization progress was partly reversed. It is well seen in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe but also in other geographic regions. In search for causes of this warning trend, many authors point out economic factors such as economic stagnation, unemployment, ...
Added: June 11, 2021
NY: Routledge, 2018
Economic sanctions are an important instrument of the foreign poilicy but they have some important limitations while applied. ...
Added: July 8, 2019
, M.: [б.и.], 2012
Socio-economic development in the Arab world is an important element of global pattern changes in the early 21st century. They show a complex interaction of processes in the masses of the new young "Internet generations" and the elites, and somewhat forgotten gastarbiters. Matrix of kingdoms and republics, oil and non-oil countries make situation more complex ...
Added: March 22, 2013
, Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2018 Т. 37 № 1 С. 34-60
Social capital defined as an ability to act cooperatively towards a common goal plays important economic role. This research aims at defining the nature and quantifying the degree of social capital impact on outcome of collective actions, having analysed the case of national football teams. The measure of national football teams’ social capital is based ...
Added: October 23, 2017
, , Efficiency, Policy Selection and Growth in Democracy and Autocracy: A Formal Dynamical Model / Высшая школа экономики. Series PS "Political Science". 2014. No. WP BRP 16/PS/2014.
The main focus of this paper is the impact of efficiency losses, related to public capital stock, on the prospects of economic growth in democratic and autocratic political environments. We introduce a distinction between two types of efficiency loss: along with the loss of public capital during its accumulation, we take into account the process ...
Added: October 24, 2014
, , Crime, Law and Social Change 2019 Vol. 72 No. 3 P. 303-325
To illustrate the role of organizations of lawyers in social changes we analyze the process of transforming legal and socio-political institutions in Russia over the past 30 years.We combine the theory of legal mobilization with the concept of violence and social orders proposed by North, Wallis and Weingast to describe the general logic of this ...
Added: January 31, 2019
Modeling and identification of the Tunisian social system in 2011-2014: bifurcation, revolution and controlled stabilization
, , , IFAC-PapersOnLine 2015
In this paper an approach to modeling of the Tunisian social system in 2011–2014 is considered and the revolution, bifurcation, and controlled stabilization are discussed. Using statistical analysis of socio-economic indicators of Tunisia there are selected two bifurcation parameters, which have influenced on stability of socio-economic system of Tunisia. Based on this analysis the recommendations ...
Added: March 28, 2015
Пересматривая роль бизнес-ассоциаций в России и на посткоммунистическом пространстве: от групп интересов к защитным организациям
, Экономическая социология 2015 Т. 16 № 3 С. 163-172
In Building Business in Post-Communist Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia: Collective Goods, Selective Incentives, and Predatory States Dinissa Duvanova discusses a “theory of defensive organizations”. Duvanova proposes this theory as an alternative to the theory of interest groups by Olson, Stigler et al. The theory of defensive organizations arises from the critique of the view ...
Added: May 31, 2015
, , , Collective Management of Residential Housing in Russia: The Importance of Being Social / Social Science Research Network. Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2013.
Performance of Russian homeowners associations established to manage common property in residential housing is assessed using the stochastic frontier technique. Observed performance variations are explained by tangible and intangible assets, especially tenants’ social capital required to resolve the collective action problem and ensure accountability of managing bodies and outside contractors. Without sufficient civic competence homeowners ...
Added: November 13, 2013
, , , Cyclically Balanced Growth Paths in a Model of Economic Growth with Endogenous Policy Switching / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. 109/EC/2015.
This paper deals with a model of economic growth, which we expand to include endogenous policy switching based on retrospective voting. It is shown that under certain conditions the solution has a special form that we call a cyclically balanced growth path. This type of solution is an analogue to balanced growth paths, which often ...
Added: November 18, 2015
, , , Журнал институциональных исследований 2017 Т. 9 № 4 С. 16-36
The paper uses the evidence from Russia to analyze the arrangements for interaction between foreign firms and key national partners in the countries of their operations. We identify the main stages and factors that were driving the evolution of the two main channels of collective action for foreign firms in Russia over the last 25 ...
Added: December 1, 2017
Autocracy-Sustaining Versus Democratic Federalism: Explaining the Divergent Trajectories of Territorial Politics in Russia and Western Europe
, , Territory, Politics, Governance 2013 Vol. 1 No. 1 P. 86-112
Added: October 16, 2017
, , , Journal of Comparative Economics 2014 Vol. 42 No. 3 P. 609-629
Collective Management of Residential Housing in Russia: The Importance of Being Social Homeowners associations (HOAs) implement collective management in residential housing. We assess the performance of such associations in Russia by using the stochastic frontier technique. Cultural traits enabling tenants to make proper use of the HOA decision-making procedures are essential for resolving the collective ...
Added: June 16, 2014