Мировая демографическая ситуация в ракурсе глобального демографического баланса
In 1971 in his Nobel lecture Simon Kuznets noted that the population growth had been ceasing to be the main force of the economic growth over the last one or two decades. Accordingly, the authors have examined the contemporary demographic situation in the world based on information given in United Nations (UN) population prospects. This paper describes the global demographic balance method that includes 5 age cohorts of the population of 20 countries and regions of the world for the last period of 1950-2010 and UN Population Prospect to 2050. This method has been applied to analyze quantitative parameters of the demographic situation in developed, least developed and in developing countries. Developed countries, which had passed the demographic transition, will face a depopulation pattern in XXI. The age structure of depopulation trends in these countries is given. In least developed countries the population growth has been persisting but not at so high pace as it was in the second half of the 20th century. BRICS countries stand out from developing countries. To assess qualitative characteristics of countries of the world the Human Development Index (HDI) has been used. This paper outlines characteristics of this indicator given by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). HDI values for BRICS countries are specified, and a conclusion has been drawn that qualitative growth is needed for economies of these countries. Outputs of world population simulation and projections by G.P. Gorshkov, B.M. Dolgopolov and A.A. Akayev, adjusted for the biosphere ultimate capacity, are presented. A conclusion has been formulated that projections by S.P. Kapitsa and UN experts that disregard the biosphere ultimate capacity are more realistic.