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Africa: The Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities
Grinin and Korotayev’s main approach in this chapter is formulated in its title “Africa—the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities.” And it is really so. Africa is the most rapidly growing continent, and its growth (demographic, economic, cultural, etc.) will inevitably influence the World System (and the further, the stronger). The growth of African societies will bring at the same time both challenges and opportunities. Grinin and Korotayev discuss both of them in detail. Grinin and Korotayev consider Africa as the main intrigue of demographic transformations in the twenty-first century. But they also think that this continent can constitute a very important intrigue in other respects (economic, political, ethnical etc.). No doubt, in the future, African countries will produce many surprises both positive and negative. Grinin and Korotayev suppose that, with respect to the humankind’s future development, Africa will be a great source of both problems and their solutions. For example, the problem of surplus labor force will continue to be acute in Africa. But on the other hand, in the context of declining birth rates in most of regions of the planet, these are African labor resources that can partially help solve the problem of labor shortages in high income countries. The growth of the African economy should be inevitable already in connection with the growth of the population, especially urban one, and its escape from extreme poverty. On the one hand, African growth could greatly influence ecology (especially in agrarian sector). But on the other hand, the future African growth can become an increasingly important source of global growth, which is close to its exhaustion. Besides, this growth is able to partially solve the problem of the shortage of many resources, at least for some significant time. Much will also depend on how deeply, systematically and quickly the green energy transition will develop. For its implementation, in addition to a host of technological and other restraining problems, an important limiting factor is the shortage of many metals and components (like silicon) necessary for green energy, electric vehicles and other equipment. Some countries of Africa are rich in resources that are in great demand in the modern electronics industry and green energy; in addition, one cannot but mention the reserves of rare earth metals. The need for these minerals can activate foreign capital and accelerate the industrial development of Africa, which will undoubtedly affect the decline in fertility, as well as the growth of interest in Africa among the leading geopolitical and economic players with all the pros and cons of their active penetration to this continent. Therefore, the world community faces an important task of trying to use the African resources as efficiently as possible to solve global problems, with the maximum benefit for the Africans themselves. Grinin and Korotayev also discuss problems of current and future instability in many African countries, connected with rapid growth, modernization, weakness of statehood and national historical experience, traditions, and so on. So in some sense Grinin and Korotayev expect that the twenty-first century will be the African century.
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