Выбор эффективной стратегии развития предприятия
The textbook focuses on information support of a decision making process: problem statement, typical stages, approaches to modeling of decision making conditions, as well as consequences of different alternatives selection. The role of expert estimates is examined. Such estimated are used for determining probabilities of problem situation, determining experts' coefficients of competency, forming estimates of the alternatives. The features of group decision making are considered. Special attention is paid to decision support on the strategic management level, in the conditions of changing and hardly predictable environment. Approaches to modeling of problem situations related with possible states of the environment in the future are examined in details. The history, current classification and perspectives of development of modern decision support systems, as well as their role in the integrated management information system are considered. In the textbook different decision support information systems (including ones developed in HSE Department of Business Analytics) are described. Description of the information systems are accomplished by the examples of their practical application. Business cases that are close to real decision making tasks are also examined. The textbook is compliant with current requirements of the Federal standard of higher education and may be useful for students, postgraduates and teachers working in the field of management, decision support and management information systems.
Analytical justification of solutions using a decision support system (DSS) significantly increases the quality of decisions. The existing DSS generally employs 1 or 2 methods of decision-making. It does not always lead to the desired results, as each method is based on certain assumptions and is not universal. The maximum effect can be achieved only insofar a set of decision-making methods is included into the knowledge base of the DSS. The only system that meets these requirements is the Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) developed under supervision of the author. Currently the EDSS includes about 50 decision-making methods. The expansion of the EDSS knowledge base by including new methods will allow for choosing the most suitable method for solving each decision-making task. Enhancing the Decision Table model underlying the system knowledge base allows you to develop the EDSS without complete reworking of the system code. The system knowledge base contains decision rules built on the principle of “if... then...” (if certain conditions of decision making exist, then a definite method of decision-making should be employed). To expand the EDSS knowledge base, ELECTRE collection methods were selected. Their key feature consists in not using the convolution operation of evaluation of the alternatives specified in different scales on individual criteria. This was the reason for selecting the methods of this family. In the article, the algorithms of these methods are adapted for their inclusion in the EDSS. An algorithm for obtaining a criterion-alternative matrix is proposed. It serves as input information for the ELECTRE family methods in cases where there is no objective information for its formation. The results of the study can be used to develop the EDSS, allowing analytical justification of solutions using methods that have not previously been used in the system.