Циклические настроения бизнеса и потребителей: фокус на ожидаемые изменения экономического роста
The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis events, as well as the feasibility of their use in short-term statistics of business cycles. The cyclical sensitivity of aggregate economic sentiment relative to the reference GDP growth dynamics is tested. The authors calculate a composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI) that combines quarterly information on 18 survey-based indicators. The sample used to construct the ESI covers about 24,000 organizations in main economic activities and 5,100 consumers in all Russian regions. Common empirical patterns and cyclical movement are identified using the iterative procedure of visual and statistical analysis of the relationship between the GDP physical volume index and ESI. The results of cross-correlation analysis, Hodrick—Prescott filtering, and dating of cyclical dynamics are described. The significance of the composite survey-based indicator in the sectoral and cross-country analysis of entrepreneurial behavior, including that during the COVID-19-related crisis, is confirmed. The results of the study allow one to record the “cognitive shift” in the level of aggregated entrepreneurial confidence having formed in recent years. After the decline in ESI values during the protracted recession in 2015–2016, its subsequent four-year dynamics are characterized by the lowest potential compared with the recovery periods after all previous crises.
The article describes in detail the economic consequences of a coronavirus attack for the European region. The authors analyzed the main barriers to rapid economic recovery, the effects of the European Commission's anti-crisis actions, short-term trends, forecasts of international organizations, and risks. According to the authors, many anti-crisis measures were taken in the region too gradually and heterogeneously across countries. Economic uncertainty and risks are still high. The divergence of countries is increasing. The authors also presented an overview of all well-known indicators of business cycles that reflect the economic sentiments of entrepreneurs and consumers in the European Union (EU) and the euro area. The results of surveys, both harmonized for all EU countries and conducted by international and national organizations, indicate that all negative trends that characterize the “economic anxiety” of European managers and consumers have begun to slow down. The paper presents the main differences in both short-term quantitative statistics and the sentiments of economic agents across countries, which significantly limit the overall effect of the recovery on the economy of the region.
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity is produced not only by macroeconomic shocks, but also by the impulses generated in the business environment. The sentiment and expectations of entrepreneurs are considered in this case both as a consequence of the ongoing economic events, and as a warning factor aff ecting the economic decision-making. To test the hypothesis, the authors used results of all sectoral business tendency monitoring of the HSE and Rosstat, which reflect the aggregate sentiment and expectations of about 24 thousand entrepreneurs and 5 thousand consumers. The monitoring results are combined into the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which calculation algorithm is based on the generally accepted international methodology and is updated taking into account the specifi cs of the Russian economy. The joint decomposition of the time series of the ESI and the reference series of GDP growth with extracting growth cycles and the dating turning points confi rms the cyclical correspondence of the dynamics of the analyzed indicators. An empirical consistency of ESI and GDP time series is revealed based on cross-correlations, a long-term linear regression and through a two-dimensional vector autoregression model. This model is used for short-term forecasting; the forecasting results indicate an unstable and slow acceleration of GDP growth in 2020. Given the ESI calculation effi ciency and a noticeable advance in its publication compared to publication of offi cial data on GDP growth, as well as ESI statistical eff ectiveness, it can be concluded that the aggregate estimates of entrepreneurial and consumer sentiment accumulated over a 20-year period are acceptable and reliable as leading information on economic growth in the country.