Диагностика степени развития российского общества на основе анализа массового протеста декабря-марта 2011-2012 гг.
The article deals with a massive protest movement which swept major Iranian cities starting from the end of 2017. The fast growth of prices, the devaluation of the national currency, and environmental issues triggered a serious civil unrest which united different social groups and professional guilds in their dissatisfaction with the current socio-economic situation in the country. The most important thing which makes this protest different even from the events of 1388/2009 is the active participation of the so called bazari, or traditional middle class of merchants and small shop owners, who for decades presented a ground base for the Islamic regime. As long as the protest continues, it can have extremely negative consequences for the Islamic Republic, especially under the conditions of growing external pressure. The re-imposition of the former unilateral sanctions by the US and the implementation of new restrictions have already had a significant impact on daily life of common Iranians. Despite the difficult conditions caused by the sanctions, which the Iranian government calls a “psychological war” (Jang-i ravani) against the country, and the unstable situation in the Sunni regions of the west, north-west and south-east, the Islamic Regime (Nizam-i Islami) is still able to remain in control of the state. What realities of Modern Iran make its population “tired”? What was the reaction of the Iranian Government and Leader of the Revolution and how is the Iranian establishment going to overcome the crisis? Does the Iranian regime take necessary steps to decrease social inequality? What forces stand behind these protests in the country and abroad? These are the main questions to be answered in order to understand possible future developments and their results for the Islamic Republic and regional stability.
The purpose of the study was to analyze the Moscow protest movement in 2015-2016. During the study 886 respondents were interviewed at four demonstrations: Boris Nemtsov's memory on March 1, 2015 (250 respondents); "In Defense of Science and Education" on June 6, 2015 (284 respondents); "For the change of power" on September 20, 2015 (195 respondents); in the memory of Boris Nemtsov on February 27, 2016 (157 respondents). Based on the data obtained, we can assume that the Moscow protesters are a formed group with stable and reproducible behaviour. They share similar political views on a number of issues, formed by group self-awareness. Notwithstanding, this study was mostly a first step research, and therefore its main conclusions need a further empirical verification.
This paper describes a series of sociological polls taken during political demonstrations in Moscow in December, 2011 – March, 2012. On the basis of the collected data,it aims to build up portraits of average protesters, describing their age, welfare, political views, social involvement, main information sources, etc. Comparing different polls, the authors also try to trace how the protesters’ views and driving factors of their activity in the given period evolved from an “optimistic” to a “pessimistic” pattern. Finally, the essay discusses the distribution within the drawn sample and the poll procedure applied to explore this social activity.