This article is devoted to the method of creating an intelligent neural network system. Unlike existing similar systems, the proposed system does not require frequent updates, because it is able to adapt itself to the constantly changing state of the economy and to the peculiarities of a particular region. Besides, the proposed system allows performing scenario forecasting of regional real estate markets depending on virtually changing economic parameters such as the dollar rate, the market price of oil, gross domestic product and gross regional product, the volume of housing construction in the region, the parameters of the state’s credit policy, etc.
The actuality of scenario forecasting of economy of Russia is stipulated by the importance of timely assessment of the situation in the country and crisis prevention actions. The goal of the researchis definition of outlook for the development of economy of Russia on the basis of scenario forecasting. The basis of the expert and statistical Bayesian method are basic scenarios of the development of economy; problem situations, resolution events. Forecasting is based on four pillars - formation of basic scenarios; description of problem situations and related events; expert assessment of realization of events (experts - doctors of sciences); calculation of chances of a scenarios of parameters of model. Following the analysis of the current trends, 18 issues, each resolved by 5 events, are revealed. The experts assessedprior and posterior odds of the events of the revealed issues. Formal and statistical check of competence of the experts was carried out on the basis of the hierarchy analysis method by T. Saati. The generalized assessments of the experts are counted. The order of solution of the issues is defined in a random manner, the choice of the event is modeled by the Monte-Carlo method, theprobabilities of scenarios for the obtained chainare calculated stepwise. Procedures are repeated many times for achievement of stable values. Following the modeling process, the results of the forecast are obtained.