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Book chapter

More money — more births? Estimating effects of 2007 family policy changes on probability of second and subsequent births in Russia

From 2007 to 2014 total fertility rate in Russia increased from 1.42 to 1.75. To what extent this growth is related to a package of family policy measures introduced in 2007? Although the maternity (family) capital program is the most well-known innovation of the 2007 reform, we argue that the new rules of monthly childcare allowance assignment is its another major component. Since all measures were introduced simultaneously, it is only possible to estimate their cumulative effect on subsequent fertility behavior. Using panel Russian Generations and Gender Survey data collected in 2004, 2007 and 2011, this study assesses how family policy changes introduced in 2007 were related to the fertility behavior in Russia in recent years. Eventually we do not find any statistically significant increase in the chances of having second and subsequent births in 2007-2011 in comparison with the period of 2004-2007.  We also find that the policy changes might have influenced women differentially, and might have had significant influence on less educated  women and women from low income households. Unfortunately, the size of the GGS sample does not allow to capture it within this study. We acknowledge that the observed effects might be related only to the calendar shifts in fertility behavior and recuperation of fertility decline observed in 1990-s.