Book chapter
Россия и Китай в Евразии и на Тихом океане
In order to turn the US and Chinese strategies in Asia Pacific into an opportunity to implement its own strategy in the region, Russia would require not simply its typical for the recent time diplomatic skill, but a strategic vision, wisdom and political will. Above all, Moscow should be able to forge a qualitatively new partnership with Washington on East Asia and the Asia Pacific, including partnership concerning development of the Russia’s Siberia and the Far East, while at the same time sustaining strategic partnership with China. This demands first and foremost a capability to overcome psychological and bureaucratic inertia both in Russia itself, and in the US.
In general, the events of this May spoke in favor of increased pragmatism in the Russia’s foreign policy towards the United States. These events as well reflected positively on the future evolution of relations between the two countries. At the same time, Washington’s policy to maintain a positive course of bilateral relations with Russia remained unchanged, while the probability of a new, serious deterioration in US-Russian relations in the near future was low. U.S.-Russian cooperation in areas of national interest (primarily Afghanistan) will be continued. However, the readiness of Moscow to build up a positive agenda in relations with Washington seems to have decreased.
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In February 2012, the influence of the presidential elections in Russia, held on March 4, 2012, on Russian-American relations reached its climax. The election campaign of the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made a special emphasis on the idea of the revival of Russia as a great power, the restoration of its military power and the strengthening of Russia’s foreign policy independence. In the eyes of most of Russia’s political elite, this primarily involves maintaining a strategic balance with the U.S. and a stiff opposition to Washington on issues not coinciding with Russia’s interests, including interference in the affairs of other states, Russia included.
The article analyses worsening of the US-Russia Relations in 2012. It discusses domestic and foreign policy reasons of the relations deterioration, explores the nature of the relations, and provides forecast for the near- and middle-term future. The paper also provides analyses of the model of "selective pragmatic cooperation" between the US and Russia, which emerged by the biginning of 2013.
Over the past almost two years, the U.S.-Russia relations have markedly improved. The “reset” of relations proposed by the Barack Obama administration has been a success. The threat of a retreat to a systemic confrontation has almost disappeared. Many of the conflicts between the two countries have been either resolved or, for the most part, reduced to a “smoldering” state. Both Russia and the United States display pragmatism by lowering the importance of persisting conflicts over the benefits of cooperation. For the first time in the post-Soviet period, the U.S. has partially revised its position on Russia-related issues and its interests with regard to Russia for the sake of getting Moscow’s support in matters of interest to Washington. Unlike the previous rounds, the current improvement of the U.S.-Russia relations rests on a more solid foundation – namely, a clear and pragmatic understanding by the parties of their interests and of the importance of constructive mutual relations for their implementation.
In March, Russian-American relations began to return to normal after a period of heightened politicization associated with the presidential campaign in Russia, when the level of anti-American rhetoric in Russia (including the rhetoric from the Prime Minister and presidential candidate Vladimir Putin) reached its peak in many years. This rhetoric died down almost immediately after the elections on March 4th, thus confirming its domestic target. At the same time, positive sentiment began to increase between the two countries. Accordingly, the Obama administration reacted to Russian presidential election results and the victory of Putin as constructively as possible in light of the current, domestic, political conditions in the U.S. This political climate has shown a degree of anti-Russian rhetoric from the Republicans through their criticism of the administration over its policy toward Russia which is unprecedented in intensity since the Cold War.