ИМИТАЦИОННОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ СИСТЕМ
The report considers the basic methods of simulation of socio-economic systems and processes such as system dynamics and multi-agent-based computer simulation, their possibilities in studying the dynamic aspects of the processes of strategic development of socio-economic systems. It offers the methods of combining composite system-dynamic and agent-based models, allowing us to investigate the dynamics of socio-economic processes by a cyclic interaction of processes of individual and group behavior of economic and social agents at the micro level with the basic processes of socio-economic system at the macro level. The report outlines the key areas of improvement of technology of simulation and scenario approach procedures for strategic planning and development of socio-economic systems.
The introduction describes the concept in the "hard"and "soft" sciences.
Main concepts and models of the modern theory of self-organization of complex systems, called also synergetics, are generalized and formulated in the book as principles of a synergetic world view. They are under discussion in the context of philosophical studies of holism, teleology, evolutionism as well as of gestalt-psychology; they are compared with some images from the history of human culture. The original and unfamiliar (to the Western readers) research results of the Moscow synergetic school which has its center at the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences are expounded in the book. Complicated and paradoxical concepts of synergetics (structure-attractors, bifurcations, blow-up regimes, non-stationary dissipative structures of self-organization, fractals, non-linearity) are translated into an intelligible language and vividly illustrated by materials and examples from various fields of knowledge, starting with the laser thermonuclear fusion and concluding with mysterious phenomena of human psychology and creativity. The style of writing is close to that of popular-science literature. That's why the book might be of interest and is quite comprehensible for students and specialists in the humanities. It is shown that the development of synergetics entails deep changes in the conceptual net through which we comprehend the world. It means a radical shift of paradigm, a conceptual transition from being to becoming, from stability to sustainability, from images of order to chaos generating new ordered evolving structures, from self-maintaining systems to fast evolution through a nonlinear positive feedback, from evolution to co-evolution, reciprocal evolution of different complex systems. The new synergetic way of thinking is evolutionary, nonlinear and holistic. This is a modern stage of development within the traditions of cybernetics and system-structural analysis. However, many elements of the latter have undergone important changes since their appearance.
Authors provide the substantiation of logistic profitability indicator introduction for problem-solving concern the evaluation of logistic system performance, incl. inventory management system.
This article describes optimization of a multimodal passenger traffic system. The optimization method used is simulation modeling. The service level indicators, costs and financial indicators when changing configurations of the system are analyzed.
Some texts written by me together with corresponding member of the Russian Academy of science Sergei P. Kurdyumov (1928-2004) and under his direct ideological influence are collected in the book. These texts are elaborated, systematized, brought together in the book and supplemented with new materials. Sergei P. Kurdyumov were possessed of a deep metaphysical flair and put forward ideas, the matter of which are not fully clear up to now. These are, first of all, the idea of co-evolution and the notion of complex structures developing at different tempos as co-existing tempo-worlds. Owing to developments in the field of nonlinear dynamics and of synergetics, the classical problem of time and the problems of evolutionary holism disclose some new and non-traditional aspects. The matter of new notions of nonlinearity of the course of time in the processes of evolution and coevolution and of nonlinear links between different modi of time – between the past, the present and the future - come to the light in the book. Analyses of four interconnected aspects of the course of processes in open and nonlinear dissipative systems – of evolutionarity, temporality, emergent nature and holism – are carried out. A whole series of paradoxical notions, such as “the influence of the future upon the present”, “the possibility of touch of a remote future in praesenti”, irreversibility and elements of reversibility of the course of time appear in synergetics, non-traditional and nonlinear notion of time being at the heart of all of them. It is shown that the best pictorial view of the nonlinear time is apparently the tree of evolution or the tree of time that represent one of archetypes in the human psyche. This image is widely used in myths and religious doctrines of the world nations (the tree of evolution of languages from some united parent language or the tree of evolution of biological species), the image is often drawn by children, appears in consciousness of a man in his sleep, etc. The synergetics methodology under development is applied to study of cognitive systems. The emergent structures of evolution and of self-organization of the individual consciousness, their spatiotemporal peculiarities, and the complexity of the human Self are considered in detail. The radical changes in the understanding of the problems of time that occur due to synergetics are compared with images of time and with the notions of connection between the past, the present and the future in the history of philosophy and of culture. The obtained methodological inferences are of great importance for a reform of systems of education, for forecasting (for building of scenarios of future development), for effective management activity in the modern globalizing world, for elaboration of methods of stimulation of the creative thinking, for the growth of personality and its adequate building into the social media.
Global climate change entails both threats and new opportunities for social and economic development of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion. Taking into account the scale of climate change forecasted for the ASE, the importance of Altai-Sayan as one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots as well as an important role assigned to the region in strategic plans of Russia’s economic development, the need to develop regional measures of adaptation to both negative and positive impacts of climate change raises no doubts. In particular, climate change is referred to as a new determinant of development and a security challenge to Russia and its regions in such strategic documents as: the RF Environmental Doctrine (2002), the RF Long-Term Social and Economic Development Concept for the period to 2020 (2008), the RF Forest Complex Development Strategy for the period to 2020 (2008), the RF National Security Strategy for the period to 2020 (2009), the RF Climate Doctrine (2009), the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period to 2030 (2009), the RF Food Safety Doctrine (2010) and the Strategy of Social and Economic Development of Siberia for the period to 2020 (2010).
The present catalogue contains abstracts for some 150 volumes, among which books, periodicals, miscellanies, published by the Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the principal institute in Russia for academic research in all kinds of philosophical knowledge. These works, written by eminent Russian scholars, cover such fi elds as the history of Russian, Western and Oriental philosophy, ethics and aesthetics, synergetics and epistemology, social and political philosophy and concentrate on problems that have attained particular importance in the age of globalization and growth of national self-consciousness.
The importance of strategic management today is unquestionable. However, when strategizing the organization is often regarded as a single whole, differences in aims and areas of operation of its parts not being considered. This approach works for many organizations, but in the case of a distributed structure its parts may function in the markets which have different requirements, competition intensity and qualification of consumers. Besides, the departments of that organization may have different levels of development. In our present work we do not consider the whole range of distributed organizations, but concentrate on universities, as they have common characteristics with commercial organizations and, at the same time, are very specific in their rules and areas of development. We focus on developing a new modeling method for decision support while designing a balanced hierarchical strategy for distributed universities. This implies beginning from the strategy for the whole organization and moving on to development of individual strategies for its departments. Thus, the proposed method contains two parts: a sub-method to develop departmental strategies and a sub-method to calculate interaction among departments.
This article describes the proposed structure and semantics of the model which can be used in the both of sub-methods.