Влияние присоединения России к ВТО на перспективы торговых отношений с Европейским союзом
This paper analyses implications of Russia’s WTO accession on trade with the EU. All in all, the WTO is a positive factor in Russia-EU relations. However mutual sanctions imposed by both the EU and Russia as a result of disagreement on Ukrainian crisis change the role of the WTO in bilateral relations between Russia and EU. The author concludes that it is possible to use opportunities created by the WTO for depoliticisation of trade sphere between Russia and the EU.
Some people in the government and business didn't get ready for new reality wich is Russia's membership in the WTO. Ignorance of the rules and principals of the WTO remains a serious problem. Membership in the WTO dont mean getting advantages automaticly. It's necessary to work hard to be efficient.
Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as real households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.
Over the years of WTO work, the inconsistency of positions on individual issues between countries, as well as groups of countries, has often led to a deadlocks in the solution of certain trade and political problems. However, the joint search for mutually beneficial, compromise ways, the willingness of participants to Dialogue at the WTO platform demonstrated the viability of the multilataral trading system.
A complex analysis of the social and economic consequences of China, Ukraine, and Russia’s accession to the WTO was used to identify recommendations for the most successful adaptation of Russia to WTO standards. Russia tries to adapt to the WTO standards. The study focuses on the Chinese experience. China’s membership in the WTO is extremely useful for Russia from due to China’s positive influence on the development of its economy , as there has been expansion in the industrial and production sectors of its economy and promotion of goods in world markets, as well as an opportunity to use the WTO’s legal instruments for national domestic market protection.
China’s positive experience as a WTO member somehow contrasts with the described experience of Ukraine. An assessment of Ukraine’s versatile policy and its association with the EU allowed concluded that it is impossible for Ukraine to follow two ways at once: that of Eurasian integration and that of European integration.
Recently, the aggravated trade, economic and political confrontations between Russia and its American and European partners spurred radical changes in Russia’s economic strategy. Areas of such transformations can be determined by understanding both the positive and negative experiences of Russia’s old trade partners, namely China and Ukraine as they joined the world economic environment.