Глава 11. Заключение
The final chapter of the analysis of the results of Census Russia- 2010
In this study we investigated differences in fertility between groups of Russian women with diverse migration biographies. We used the Russian Census 2010 microdata to analyze cohort fertility of women born in 1950-1979. Large size of the country together with its demographic heterogeneity allowed us to differentiate migration patterns both by the move distance and by the combination of fertility regimes in the regions of origin and the regions of destination. The data showed that on average women who live at the place of their birth at the Census moment have fewer children compared to those who have moved to another region during their lives. The highest fertility is observed among the women who moved within their birth region. At the same time the move to the capital regions (i.e. Moscow, Saint Petersburg or their provinces) has strong negative effect on the cohort fertility.
A set of simple linear models estimated within the study revealed that the distance of migration turns out to be insignificant when we include parameters characterizing fertility regimes in the regions of origin and in the regions of destination into the equation. Generally regression analysis proved that internal migration has a positive effect on fertility. Thus, even moving to the regions with lower fertility level increases average number of children per woman in comparison to those who have not migrated at all. On the whole, the higher is fertility in the destination region, the higher is the observed positive effect on cohort fertility of migrated women.
The study considers the relationship between internal migration and fertility in Russia. Authors use a sample of 28.2 million women born in 1950-1979 withdrawn from the Russian population Census-2010 database. The data shows that women who have continuously lived in their birthplace since birth have on average lower fertility compared to those who have a migration experience. The authors attribute this to the fact that in Russia internal migrants usually aim to escape from economically depressed areas, and positive effects of these changes overcome negative effects coming from the disruption of their childbearing careers. At that moves within the region have stronger positive impact on fertility than interregional ones, which confirms that migration and fertility are still competing life events. One major exception are migrants heading to the capital cities. Due to the need to adapt to the high competition in every sphere of economic life on the one hand and to the very low fertility norms in the destination region on the other hand they demonstrate lower eventual fertility than their non-migrant compatriots. Spatial analysis of fertility differences between migrant and non-migrant women revealed that regions that loose in fertility due to internal migration are few and they are clustered around the Caucasus Mountains and near the Altai. These are regions just entering the second demographic transition characterized by high fertility together with relatively low average age for motherhood. Overall, authors conclude that Russia benefits from internal migration in terms of eventual fertility.
The study focuses on the social and demographic correlates of second and subsequent births in Russia. Basing on the Russian Census 2010 microdata we estimate the chances of having two and then three or more children for women who already had their first child and who are still in the fertile age at the Census moment. Rural-urban differences appear to be the most influential factor with respect to the second and subsequent births. However, for the third or subsequent births differences between urban and well-educated rural women become less significant. Low-educated women living in rural area have the highest chances of having second and subsequent children. The dynamics of these chances over the time elapsed since the first birth also indicates shorter intergenetic intervals in this group of women. Generally the higher is the age at first birth the lower are the chances of having two or more children. Yet very early first birth lowers chances of having consequent children. When analyzing chances of the second and the subsequent births by the age at first birth within the cohorts of women born in 1960-1990 we observe a flatter curve for the younger generations. This means that age at the start of reproduction career gradually becomes a little less strong correlate of the second and subsequent births. In the following research we plan to estimate influence of the macroeconomic background, including economic crises of 1990-s, on the dynamics of the considered chances.
Book Review: Migration in Russia 2000-2012. Chrestomathy in 3 volumes. Russian International Affairs Council, Ch. Ed. IS Ivanov, Br. Ed. Zh.A. Zayonchkovskaya, comp.: N.V. Mkrtchyan, E.V. Tyuryukanova. M. Spetskniga [Special book], 2013.