Некейнсианские эффекты фискальной политики: Россия, 1995–2011 гг
Ключевые слова: государственная поддержка, эффективность, инвестиции, проекты, фискальная политика, выгоды
Partisan governments play an impor tant role in the elaborat ion of macroeconomic policies of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries: they manage ﬁscal policy and coordinate with a Central Bank that conducts monetary policy. Ideology is a crucial parameter of the ruling coalition. This study focuses on the inﬂuence of the ideology of the ruling coalition on macroeconomic policies of the OECD countries. Using statistical methods, the analysis examines the relationship between the “rightism” of the ruling coalition and such characteristics of budgetary policy as budget balancing, state expenditures and tax collection. The ﬁndings show that the inﬂuence of ideology is determined by a set of social and economic factors, so the nature of the inﬂuence that ideology wields may work in diﬀerent directions depending on the conditions.
This paper studies fiscal policy in Russia 2004–2010 with the aid of structural budget balance and fiscal impulse measures. To check for robustness several methods estimating the potential GDP are employed. The research suggests a hypothesis that the output in Russia is subject to two types of shocks: persistent outward shocks and short-term internal shocks. In 2004–2010, fiscal policy coped with the internal shocks but could not smooth outward instability. Fiscal policy in Russia is procyclical; it does not stabilize the output.