8. Смертность и продолжительность жизни
The demographic situation in Russia has improved markedly in recent years. This is in large part due to the successful implementation of policy measures to support fertility, reduce harmful alcohol consumption, and improve the health care system. In 2006-2012 Russia recorded the fastest increase in total fertility rate (TFR) in Europe, and the second fastest in the world. TFR rose from 1.3 to 1.7 children per woman (30% increase). In absolute terms, the number of births in 2012 was 1,896 thousand, an increase from the 2006 value by 416 thousand children, as the crude birth rate for the period increased from 10.3 to 13.3 per 1000 (up by 29%).
Despite the recent positive dynamics of the birth rate, however, the potential for a demographic crisis is not over. In the coming years Russia will face the aftermath of the catastrophic decline of fertility of the late 1980s and the early 1990s. In 10 years the number of women in the most active reproductive age (20–29 years, when almost two thirds of all births take place), will fall by almost half; this will inevitably lead to a reduction in the number of births. Despite the recent increase in TFR to 1.7, this remains below the level for replacement. Given the sharp decline in the number of women of child-bearing age in the next generation, a considerable further increase in fertility will be necessary to stabilize Russia’s population, especially since larger cohorts will be entering their 60s and 70s and thus increasing mortality as well.
Russia's mortality rate remains very high by world standards. Despite a significant reduction in mortality in 2005-2012, Russia still rates 22nd highest in the world according to crude death rate (CDR), mainly due to the excessive mortality rate among working-age males. The gap in life expectancy between men and women is huge: men’s life expectancy is fully 12 years less than that of women. Russia’s CDR of 13.5 per 1000 in 2012 was higher than that in Mali, Burundi, or Cameroon; most importantly it remained higher than Russia’s crude birth rate, so that without immigration the population will continue to decline.
Mortality of working age males is the key component of the situation. About one in five deaths in Russia is related to alcohol (about 400 thousand deaths per year). About 300 thousand deaths annually are due to diseases associated with tobacco smoking, and no less than 100 thousand deaths result from the consequences of drug use. Continuing deficiencies of the health care delivery system also contribute to Russia’s relatively high mortality levels.
Regional variation of all features of mortality is quite significant. Being noted for many decades The North-Ost gradient of increased mortality rate continues its trend. In a time despite essential regional variation of mortality the difference in the orientation of its dynamic is not significant at all. An important condition for development of measures to ensure a decrease of mortality rate is information on social and demographic factors.
The book «Population development and population policy» (series «Population studies») is dedicated to the famous Russian demographer, Dr. Sc. (Economics), MSU emeritus professor A.Y. Kvasha. The authors are colleagues and students of A.Y. Kvasha. The first part includes biography of A.Y. Kvasha, list of his main scientific papers and PhD theses carried out under his supervision. The second part is devoted to reminiscences of his disciples and colleagues. The third part contains articles – their themes are associated with A.Y. Kvasha: demographic analysis and projections, population policy, economic, social and military demography. For researchers, post-doctoral fellows, students and anyone interested in population problems
BACKGROUND The long-term historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality, based on data obtained up to that time. OBJECTIVE In the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began in the mid-1960s. This paper documents this phenomenon and offers alternative formulas for calculation of the average age of death, taking into account the new mortality trends. METHODS Standard statistical methodologies and a specially developed method are applied to the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the initial (raw) numbers of deaths from the Human Mortality Database. RESULTS It is demonstrated that the trend of decline in the average age of infant death becomes interrupted when the infant mortality rate attains a level around 10 per 1000, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered.
vCONCLUSIONS The average age of death in infancy is an important characteristic of infant mortality, although it does not influence the magnitude of life expectancy. That the increase in average age of death in infancy is connected with medical advances is proposed as a possible explanation.