Interactive Impacts – Foresight as a Product, Service and Coproduction Process
Foresight is often addressed to topics that are in essence complex service systems. Thus, attention to service research can enhance more than just our understanding of Foresight practice. Analysis of features of service systems can provide useful inputs – at least general background, and sometimes absolutely critical elements – for understanding social and organisational dimensions of many of the domains with which the exercises are concerned. Foresight practice can learn from the substantial experience that has accumulated in recent years about service systems, service design, service innovation, and related topics. So far it is only been able to highlight a few of the ways in which Foresight can be informed by service research. A new understanding of Foresight as an alone standing service is endorse able and shows potentials to improve Foresight’s reputation and potential contributions to science, technology and innovation policy.
One of the most important issues for the world society in the XXI century is a task to provide pure water for citizens. As evidenced results of expert survey, made by the Higher School of Economics
significant part of water sources for drinking water in Russia doesn’t meet necessary requirements. And one of the most adequate solutions to meet this challenge is using the nanotechnologies in processes of water purification that can solve the set of problems such as polluted sources, obsolete equipment, increased risk of diseases etc. Roadmap “Applying Nanotechnology to Water Treatment” was launched by summarizing opinions of expert community participants both national and foreign regarding the most significant nanotechnologies and products made with their help which are used or can be used for water treatment and purification purposes. The aim of the research is to make special innovation routes R&D-technologies-products-markets that could be used by federal and regional authorities and Russian companies working in the field of water purification. The roadmap becomes the first largescale national foresight exercise in the area of nanotechnologies for water purification.
Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and electricity. The goal of the study was to foresee and agree on the visionary future for the nascent renewable energy sector in the country, as well as to provide the scientifically justified grounds for government and corporate decision-makers. The research is based on a mixture of methods: bibliometric analysis and text mining, literature review, expert surveys and interviews, workshops, STEEPV analysis of trends, scenario analysis, and applied policy analysis. As a result of the study, major trends and uncertainties that may affect the Russian and global renewable energy sector in the next 15-20 years were identified. Other results include the scenarios for Russia’s renewable energy sector that are proposed together with recommendations for the Russian companies and public authorities. The study’s policy and market implications go beyond Russia: the outcomes may be useful for similar studies, early stage renewable energy policy planning and investment decision.
Roadmapping is a useful instrument for developing strategic measures. Despite the importance of customizing roadmaps to firm/industry specific managerial needs and environmental conditions, the existing literature has focused on the simplified roadmapping process. Little attention has been paid to the customization of roadmaps. Our proposed methodological approach, suggested through a case study, brings together several targeted roadmaps and integrates them into one overarching roadmap — the umbrella roadmap as a new flexible systemic tool. The integrated umbrella roadmap delivers a framework of the industry/company's overall expectations (trends, etc.), whereas targeted roadmaps focus on local targets for a specific product/technology.
This paper performs a quantitative analysis of trends in technology mining (TM) approaches using 5 years (2011–2015) of Global TechMining (GTM) conference proceedings as a data source. These proceedings are processed with a help of Vantage Point software, providing an approach “tech mining for analyzing tech mining.” Through quantitative data processing (bibliometric analysis, natural language processing, statistical analysis, principal component analysis (PCA)), this study presents an overview, explores dynamics and potentials for existing and advanced TM methodologies in three layers: related methods, data sources, and software tools. The main groups and combinations of TM and related methods are identified. Key trends and weak signals concerning the use of existing (natural language processing (NLP), mapping, network analysis, etc.) and emerging methods (web scraping, ontology modeling, advanced bibliometrics, semantic the theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ), sentiment analysis, etc.) are detected. The results are considered to be taken as a guide for researchers, practitioners, or policy makers involved in foresight activity.
The goal of the conference is to help build cross-disciplinary networks of analysts, software specialists, and researchers to advance the use of textual information in multiple science, technology, and business development fields. Within this context, conference themes will include, but are not limited to:
DataSourcing, preparing, and interpreting data sources including patents, publications, webscraping, and other novel data sources
Text-mining tools and methodsBest practices in software-based topic modeling, clumping, association rules, term manipulation, text manipulation, etc. Visualization
Applied researchFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Intelligence gathering to support decision-making in the private sector (e.g., Management of Technology)
The publication was prepared in the scope of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Activities “Advancement of the Bilateral Partnership in Scientific Research and Innovation with the Russian Federation”. The paper presents an analysis of best practices in STI priority setting in the EU member states (UK, Germany, and Finland) and in the Russian Federation; compares priority systems adopted by various European countries; and identifies prospective subject areas for further development of international cooperation.
The materials included in the publication will help public authorities, companies, R&D organisations, universities, technology platforms, innovative territorial clusters, and other organisations to identify priority development areas, subject fields, and critical technologies.
The results of the analysis of current and emerging technological shifts in Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) at the global and national levels are presented in the article. The authors discuss the future of the Russian AIC through the prism of unlikely catastrophic events (jokers). The risks of those events should be taken into consideration when forming the agrarian and scientific-technical policy of the country by modeling stressful scenarios that can be realized in the domestic food sector as a result of triggering of certain drivers.
The paper presents methods and algorithms for identifying complex concepts relevant for the domain of technological foresight within text collections. An approach based on the so called “black box” principle and combination of statistical and linguistic methods is proposed.
This illuminating book combines theory and practice to analyze the experiences and impacts of foresight activities in various European countries. It includes case studies with a focus on different societal issues including national development, science and technology, and sustainable development.