Модернизация экономики и глобализация: В 3 кн. Кн. 1.
K. Yudaeva, E. Yasin Strategy-2050: Can Russia Deal with Challenges of Globalization? In the next 30-40 years Russia has a real chance to enter the club of the most developed countries in the world. But for this to happen Russia should implement a number of institutional reforms and make changes in its way of thinking and culture in order to move from catching up growth to growth on the technological frontier and to deal with challenges of globalization.
The article presents an empirical investigation of the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real ruble appreciation in 1999-2007. We consider long-run, supply-side determinants of the real ruble exchange rate, such as changes in terms of trade and labor productivity. Using Russian and German data on price and productivity differentials between tradable and non-tradable sectors of the two economies, we estimate the significance of oil price shocks and the Balassa-Samuelson effect for the real ruble appreciation. Our study demonstrates that, on average, about 1/3 of the observed appreciation can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The cointegrating relationship between the productivity differential and the real exchange rate provides evidence of the healthy nature of the economic growth, which took place in Russia during the time period under investigation. These findings suggest that exchange rate adjustments should be used by the Central Bank of Russia mainly as a monetary policy instrument for fighting inflation rather than as a tool for competitive devaluations.
In the last two decades considerable attention has been drawn to the methods of computing price indexes for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products: the discussion started in the USA and then has been continued throughout the globe. Report prepared by Boskin Commission (1996) raised the problem of biases in the price indexes for ICT products: it showed that traditional matched models indexes can substantially overestimate inflation, because they are not able to measure the peculiarities of ICT industries (i.e. fast rotation of goods, huge quality differences among products on the market, short product life cycle, etc). The Commission showed that the use of matched model indexes leads to inflation rates overestimation by 0,6% per year in the US official CPI (CPI-U). Similar results were obtained by Crawford (1998) for Canada, Lequiller (1997) for France, Shiratsuka (1999) for Japan, Hoffmann (1998) for Germany and Cunningham (1996) for the UK.